Global Warming? Uhuh... Global Climate Chaos!

2008-12-02T12:47:00.002+09:00

The 10 big energy myths
Chris Goodall, guardian.co.uk, Thursday November 27 2008

Myth 1: solar power is too expensive to be of much use

In reality, today's bulky and expensive solar panels capture only 10% or so of the sun's energy, but rapid innovation in the US means that the next generation of panels will be much thinner, capture far more of the energy in the sun's light and cost a fraction of what they do today. They may not even be made of silicon. First Solar, the largest manufacturer of thin panels, claims that its products will generate electricity in sunny countries as cheaply as large power stations by 2012.

Other companies are investigating even more efficient ways of capturing the sun's energy, for example the use of long parabolic mirrors to focus light on to a thin tube carrying a liquid, which gets hot enough to drive a steam turbine and generate electricity. Spanish and German companies are installing large-scale solar power plants of this type in North Africa, Spain and the south-west of America; on hot summer afternoons in California, solar power stations are probably already financially competitive with coal. Europe, meanwhile, could get most of its electricity from plants in the Sahara desert. We would need new long-distance power transmission but the technology for providing this is advancing fast, and the countries of North Africa would get a valuable new source of income.

Myth 2: wind power is too unreliable

Actually, during some periods earlier this year the wind provided almost 40% of Spanish power. Parts of northern Germany generate more electricity from wind than they actually need. Northern Scotland, blessed with some of the best wind speeds in Europe, could easily generate 10% or even 15% of the UK's electricity needs at a cost that would comfortably match today's fossil fuel prices.

The intermittency of wind power does mean that we would need to run our electricity grids in a very different way. To provide the most reliable electricity, Europe needs to build better connections between regions and countries; those generating a surplus of wind energy should be able to export it easily to places where the air is still. The UK must invest in transmission cables, probably offshore, that bring Scottish wind-generated electricity to the power-hungry south-east and then continue on to Holland and France. The electricity distribution system must be Europe-wide if we are to get the maximum security of supply.

We will also need to invest in energy storage. At the moment we do this by
pumping water uphill at times of surplus and letting it flow back down the mountain when power is scarce. Other countries are talking of developing "smart grids" that provide users with incentives to consume less electricity when wind speeds are low. Wind power is financially viable today in many countries, and it will become cheaper as turbines continue to grow in size, and manufacturers drive down costs. Some projections see more than 30% of the world's electricity eventually coming from the wind. Turbine manufacture and installation are also set to become major sources of employment, with one trade body predicting that the sector will generate 2m jobs worldwide by 2020.

Myth 3: marine energy is a dead-end

The thin channel of water between the north-east tip of Scotland and Orkney contains some of the most concentrated tidal power in the world. The energy from the peak flows may well be greater than the electricity needs of London. Similarly, the waves off the Atlantic coasts of Spain and Portugal are strong, consistent and able to provide a substantial fraction of the region's power. Designing and building machines that can survive the harsh conditions of fast-flowing ocean waters has been challenging and the past decades have seen repeated disappointments here and abroad. This year we have seen the installation of the first tidal turbine to be successfully connected to the UK electricity grid in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, and the first group of large-scale wave power generators 5km off the coast of Portugal, constructed by a Scottish company.

But even though the UK shares with Canada, South Africa and parts of South America some of the best marine energy resources in the world, financial support has been trifling. The London opera houses have had more taxpayer money than the British marine power industry over the past few years. Danish support for wind power helped that country establish worldwide leadership in the building of turbines; the UK could do the same with wave and tidal power.

Myth 4: nuclear power is cheaper than other low-carbon sources of electricity

If we believe that the world energy and environmental crises are as severe as is said, nuclear power stations must be considered as a possible option. But although the disposal of waste and the proliferation of nuclear weapons are profoundly important issues, the most severe problem may be the high and unpredictable cost of nuclear plants.

The new nuclear power station on the island of Olkiluoto in western Finland is a clear example. Electricity production was originally supposed to start this year, but the latest news is that the power station will not start generating until 2012. The impact on the cost of the project has been dramatic. When the contracts were signed, the plant was supposed to cost €3bn (£2.5bn). The final cost is likely to be more than twice this figure and the construction process is fast turning into a nightmare. A second new plant in Normandy appears to be experiencing similar problems. In the US, power companies are backing away from nuclear because of fears over uncontrollable costs.

Unless we can find a new way to build nuclear power stations, it looks as though CO2 capture at coal-fired plants will be a cheaper way of producing low-carbon electricity. A sustained research effort around the world might also mean that cost-effective carbon capture is available before the next generation of nuclear plants is ready, and that it will be possible to fit carbon-capture equipment on existing coal-fired power stations. Finding a way to roll out CO2 capture is the single most important research challenge the world faces today. The current leader, the Swedish power company Vattenfall, is using an innovative technology that burns the coal in pure oxygen rather than air, producing pure carbon dioxide from its chimneys, rather than expensively separating the CO2 from other exhaust gases. It hopes to be operating huge coal-fired power stations with minimal CO2 emissions by 2020.

Myth 5: electric cars are slow and ugly

We tend to think that electric cars are all like the G Wiz vehicle, with a limited range, poor acceleration and an unprepossessing appearance. Actually, we are already very close to developing electric cars that match the performance of petrol vehicles. The Tesla electric sports car, sold in America but designed by Lotus in Norfolk, amazes all those who experience its awesome acceleration. With a price tag of more than $100,000, late 2008 probably wasn't a good time to launch a luxury electric car, but the Tesla has demonstrated to everybody that electric cars can be exciting and desirable. The crucial advance in electric car technology has been in batteries: the latest lithium batteries - similar to the ones in your laptop - can provide large amounts of power for acceleration and a long enough range for almost all journeys.

Batteries still need to become cheaper and quicker to charge, but the UK's largest manufacturer of electric vehicles says that advances are happening faster than ever before. Its urban delivery van has a range of over 100 miles, accelerates to 70mph and has running costs of just over 1p per mile. The cost of the diesel equivalent is probably 20 times as much. Denmark and Israel have committed to develop the full infrastructure for a switch to an all-electric car fleet. Danish cars will be powered by the spare electricity from the copious resources of wind power; the Israelis will provide solar power harvested from the desert.

Myth 6: biofuels are always destructive to the environment

Making some of our motor fuel from food has been an almost unmitigated disaster. It has caused hunger and increased the rate of forest loss, as farmers have sought extra land on which to grow their crops. However the failure of the first generation of biofuels should not mean that we should reject the use of biological materials forever. Within a few years we will be able to turn agricultural wastes into liquid fuels by splitting cellulose, the most abundant molecule in plants and trees, into simple hydrocarbons. Chemists have struggled to find a way of breaking down this tough compound cheaply, but huge amounts of new capital have flowed into US companies that are working on making a petrol substitute from low-value agricultural wastes. In the lead is Range Fuels, a business funded by the venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, which is now building its first commercial cellulose cracking plant in Georgia using waste wood from managed forests as its feedstock.

We shouldn't be under any illusion that making petrol from cellulose is a solution to all the problems of the first generation of biofuels. Although cellulose is abundant, our voracious needs for liquid fuel mean we will have to devote a significant fraction of the world's land to growing the grasses and wood we need for cellulose refineries. Managing cellulose production so that it doesn't reduce the amount of food produced is one of the most important issues we face.

Myth 7: climate change means we need more organic agriculture

The uncomfortable reality is that we already struggle to feed six billion people. Population numbers will rise to more than nine billion by 2050. Although food production is increasing slowly, the growth rate in agricultural productivity is likely to decline below population increases within a few years. The richer half of the world's population will also be eating more meat. Since animals need large amounts of land for every unit of meat they produce, this further threatens food production for the poor. So we need to ensure that as much food as possible is produced on the limited resources of good farmland. Most studies show that yields under organic cultivation are little more than half what can be achieved elsewhere. Unless this figure can be hugely improved, the implication is clear: the world cannot feed its people and produce huge amounts of cellulose for fuels if large acreages are converted to organic cultivation.

Myth 8: zero carbon homes are the best way of dealing with greenhouse gas emissions from buildings

Buildings are responsible for about half the world's emissions; domestic housing is the most important single source of greenhouse gases. The UK's insistence that all new homes are "zero carbon" by 2016 sounds like a good idea, but there are two problems. In most countries, only about 1% of the housing stock is newly built each year. Tighter building regulations have no effect on the remaining 99%. Second, making a building genuinely zero carbon is extremely expensive. The few prototype UK homes that have recently reached this standard have cost twice as much as conventional houses.

Just focusing on new homes and demanding that housebuilders meet extremely high targets is not the right way to cut emissions. Instead, we should take a lesson from Germany. A mixture of subsidies, cheap loans and exhortation is succeeding in getting hundreds of thousands of older properties eco-renovated each year to very impressive standards and at reasonable cost. German renovators are learning lessons from the PassivHaus movement, which has focused not on reducing carbon emissions to zero, but on using painstaking methods to cut emissions to 10 or 20% of conventional levels, at a manageable cost, in both renovations and new homes. The PassivHaus pioneers have focused on improving insulation, providing far better air-tightness and warming incoming air in winter, with the hotter stale air extracted from the house. Careful attention to detail in both design and building work has produced unexpectedly large cuts in total energy use. The small extra price paid by householders is easily outweighed by the savings in electricity and gas. Rather than demanding totally carbon-neutral housing, the UK should push a massive programme of eco-renovation and cost-effective techniques for new construction.

Myth 9: the most efficient power stations are big

Large, modern gas-fired power stations can turn about 60% of the energy in fuel into electricity. The rest is lost as waste heat.

Even though 5-10% of the electricity will be lost in transmission to the user, efficiency has still been far better than small-scale local generation of power. This is changing fast.

New types of tiny combined heat and power plants are able to turn about half the energy in fuel into electricity, almost matching the efficiency of huge generators. These are now small enough to be easily installed in ordinary homes. Not only will they generate electricity but the surplus heat can be used to heat the house, meaning that all the energy in gas is productively used. Some types of air conditioning can even use the heat to power their chillers in summer.

We think that microgeneration means wind turbines or solar panels on the roof, but efficient combined heat and power plants are a far better prospect for the UK and elsewhere. Within a few years, we will see these small power plants, perhaps using cellulose-based renewable fuels and not just gas, in many buildings. Korea is leading the way by heavily subsidising the early installation of fuel cells at office buildings and other large electricity users.

Myth 10: all proposed solutions to climate change need to be hi-tech

The advanced economies are obsessed with finding hi-tech solutions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Many of these are expensive and may create as many problems as they solve. Nuclear power is a good example. But it may be cheaper and more effective to look for simple solutions that reduce emissions, or even extract existing carbon dioxide from the air. There are many viable proposals to do this cheaply around the world, which also often help feed the world's poorest people. One outstanding example is to use a substance known as biochar to sequester carbon and increase food yields at the same time.

Biochar is an astonishing idea. Burning agricultural wastes in the absence of air leaves a charcoal composed of almost pure carbon, which can then be crushed and dug into the soil. Biochar is extremely stable and the carbon will stay in the soil unchanged for hundreds of years. The original agricultural wastes had captured CO2 from the air through the photosynthesis process; biochar is a low-tech way of sequestering carbon, effectively for ever. As importantly, biochar improves fertility in a wide variety of tropical soils. Beneficial micro-organisms seem to crowd into the pores of the small pieces of crushed charcoal. A network of practical engineers around the tropical world is developing the simple stoves needed to make the charcoal. A few million dollars of support would allow their research to benefit hundreds of millions of small farmers at the same time as extracting large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere.

2008-12-01T18:29:00.000+09:00

Geothermal Industry Development Framework (GIDF)
Geodynamics, December 1, 2008

Australian governments have placed a great deal of confidence in the Australian
geothermal energy industry and acknowledged the important role it will play in Australia’s future energy supply through the collaborative development of the GIDF and the Geothermal Technology Road Map according to the national geothermal industry body, the Australian Geothermal Energy Association (AGEA).

Read more..

2008-11-28T09:19:00.000+09:00

Scientists crack iceberg mystery
Reuters, November 28, 2008, 6:09 am

OSLO (Reuters) - U.S. scientists have figured out how icebergs break off Antarctica and Greenland, a finding that may help predict rising sea levels as the climate warms.

Writing in Friday's edition of the journal Science, they said icebergs formed fast when parent ice sheets spread out quickly over the sea.

"It won't help the Titanic, but a newly derived, simple law may help scientists improve their climate models" and predict ice sheet break-up, they said in a statement. The Titanic sank in 1912 after hitting an iceberg, killing 1,500 people.

Ice cracking off into the ocean from Antarctica and Greenland could be the main contributor to global sea level rises in the future. If all the ice in Greenland and Antarctica melted, seas would rise by more than 60 metres (196 ft).

The formation rate of icebergs was less linked to factors such as ice thickness, width of the ice flow, distance from land or waves, the scientists said.

Ice sheets are giant frozen rivers, caused by snowfall, that slowly flow to the sea and then break up.

In Antarctica, the Ross Ice Shelf extends 500 miles (800 km) over the ocean before the edges snap off and form icebergs. Many other ice sheets stretch just a mile or two.

Computer models that predict how ice sheets behave in warmer weather generally gloss over exactly how icebergs break off because researchers have failed to understand the mechanism, known as calving.

"For iceberg calving, the important variable -- the one that accounts for the largest portion of when the iceberg breaks -- is the rate at which ice shelves spread," the study said.

A fast spread means cracks form throughout the shelf and make it crack up. A slower spread means that deep cracks do not form as fast and the ice sticks together.

"The problem of when things break is a really hard problem because there is so much variability," lead author Richard Alley, of Pennsylvania State University, said.

"Anyone who has dropped a coffee cup knows this. Sometimes the coffee cup breaks and sometimes it bounces," he said of the problems of understanding cracking.

The U.N. Climate Panel predicts seas will rise by 18 to 59 cm (7-23 inches) this century because of warming stoked by human use of fossil fuels.

2008-11-20T18:45:00.000+09:00

Presidential Climate Action Project

One of the most important challenges facing the 44th President – arguably the most important challenge – will be to quickly and effectively address the three interrelated problems of climate change, energy stability and national security.

Leading climate experts estimate that the international community has 10 years to make dramatic changes in greenhouse gas emissions if we wish to avoid the worst consequences of global warming. A similar need for action in the next decade is being created by the growing international competition for oil, the approaching peak in world petroleum production and America’s increasing dependence on oil from unstable or hostile regions. Left unaddressed, these problems may create unprecedented economic and environmental hardships and increasing global tensions.1

By the time the 44th President takes office, the window of opportunity to prevent these crises will be one-third gone. The people of the United States, as well as other nations, will be looking for an early indication of whether the President intends to lead the world’s largest energy-consuming and greenhouse-gas emitting nation on a responsible course of action.

To help the President launch effective Federal leadership on these issues, the University of Colorado and several partner organizations are engaging the nation’s science, policy, business and civic leaders to produce a Presidential Climate Action Plan (PCAP).

The plan will contain a broad menu of policy and program recommendations for the President, rather than advocating a particular policy. It will be announced early in 2008. During 2007-2008, the project will operate a web site that offers resource documents and background information on climate policy to assist the Presidential candidates in forming their climate-action commitments.

1. “Peaking of World Oil production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management”, Hirsch, Bezdek and Wendling, February 2005, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy

2008-11-19T09:47:00.002+09:00

A climate of change
Economist.com, Nov 19, 2008

How countries' greenhouse-gas emissions have changed since 1990

BARACK OBAMA said on Tuesday November 18th that his presidency will “mark a new chapter in America's leadership on climate change”. According to new UN figures on greenhouse-gas emissions much remains to be done. Some 40 industrialised countries (though not China and India, for example) report emissions data to the UN as part of its Convention on Climate Change. Some of these countries, notably in eastern and central European, have shown big reductions from 1990 to 2006, driven in part by the collapse of heavy industries. By contrast emissions in Spain, Portugal and Ireland grew enormously as their economies surged ahead. Australia, Canada and America also pumped out more climate-warming gases. Despite a 5% decline since 1990 across the 40 countries, the recent trend is upwards. Since 2000 emissions from the former Soviet Union countries have grown by 7.4%, and those of rich countries by 2%.

2008-11-18T12:38:00.002+09:00

News Roundup

IEA stokes doubts over world's climate fight
LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters)

The world will have to bet on extreme measures to avoid serious global warming, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, adding to growing worries that governments have under-estimated the problem.

The energy adviser to 28 rich countries detailed two paths for limiting warming to 2 and 3 degrees Celsius respectively, which would both require huge annual investments to deploy fossil fuels alternatives.

"Both scenarios imply that net greenhouse gas emissions turn negative -- carbon absorbtion exceeds gross emissions -- towards the end of the century," said the IEA's set-piece annual energy report, published on Wednesday.

If the world carried on as normal without taking new steps to fight climate change temperature would rise in the long-term by up to 6 degrees.

Above 2 degrees warming, "hundreds of millions of people would face reduced water supplies", and above 3 degrees food production worldwide would be "very likely to decrease", a U.N. panel of climate scientists said last year.

Limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees would be especially expensive because it would involve scrapping and replacing dirty power plants at a cost of about $3.6 trillion from 2010-2030, the IEA report said.

That compares with global efforts in recent weeks to shore up the world economy at a cost of about $4 trillion.

U.S. Consumers: Companies Should Pay To Manage Climate Change
Environmental Leader, November 16, 2008

The fifth EcoPinion Survey from EcoAlign finds that consumers generally agree on the definition of climate change, the importance of reducing climate change and the role of the individual to reduce climate change.

“Higher penalties on companies that contribute to climate change” was clearly the top response (61 percent) on the best way for society to pay for the costs of managing climate change, a nearly 45 percent differential with the next top response (16 percent) indicating “higher fees on products or services that contribute to climate change.”

OpenEco.org 2.0 Launched By Sun
Environmental Leader, November 16, 2008

Sun Microsystems has updated OpenEco.org, an online community that provides tools to help companies calculate, compare and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Xerox Details Its Environmental Ups and Downs
GreenBiz.com, 11 November 2008

Xerox lays out its environmental performance for 2007, compared both to 2006 results and its long-term goals, in its 2008 global citizenship report.

Xerox also brought itself closer to its goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent between 2002 and 2012. Its original goal was to cut emissions 10 percent in that time period, but upped the goal after hitting 10 percent by 2006. By the end of 2007, Xerox cut its emissions 21 percent compared to 2002.

2008-11-18T12:31:00.003+09:00

World's First Climate Change Refugees Acknowledged By UN
Solomon Times Online, 5 November 2008

Carterets Islanders have become the world's first climate change refugees according to a recent United Nations Report.

The one-thousand-500 residents of Carterets Island, an atoll of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville, are fast becoming the world's first climate change refugees as officially stated.

A third of the population had refused to leave their island because they claimed they had spent all their lives there and would not move or claimed they would sink and vanish with the island.

Sea levels around the atoll have risen 10 centimetres in the past 20 years, inundating plantations.

The situation is deteriorating, islanders told officials. They said they urgently needed assistance to be relocated to higher ground.

Bougainville Administrator Raymond Masono says that they are still negotiating with landowners for land which they would resettle the islanders as their permanent home under the major climate change resettlement exercise.

He however says that the exercise would cost the Autonomous Bougainville and PNG Government millions of dollars starting next year through to 2014.

2008-11-17T16:59:00.002+09:00

'Unprecedented' Warming Drives Dramatic Ecosystem Shifts In North Atlantic, Study Finds

ScienceDaily (Nov. 7, 2008) — While Earth has experienced numerous changes in climate over the past 65 million years, recent decades have experienced the most significant climate change since the beginning of human civilized societies about 5,000 years ago, says a new Cornell University study.

Carbon Dioxide Levels Already In Danger Zone, Revised Theory Shows

ScienceDaily (Nov. 9, 2008) — If climate disasters are to be averted, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) must be reduced below the levels that already exist today, according to a study published in Open Atmospheric Science Journal by a group of 10 scientists from the United States, the United Kingdom and France.

In their model, with coal emissions phased out between 2010 and 2030, atmospheric CO2 would peak at 400-425 ppm and then slowly decline. The authors maintain that the peak CO2 level reached would depend on the accuracy of oil and gas reserve estimates and whether the most difficult to extract oil and gas is left in the ground.

The authors suggest that reforestation of degraded land and improved agricultural practices that retain soil carbon could lower atmospheric CO2 by as much as 50 ppm. They also dismiss the notion of "geo-engineering" solutions, noting that the price of artificially removing 50 ppm of CO2 from the air would be about $20 trillion.

While they note the task of moving toward an era beyond fossil fuels is Herculean, the authors conclude that it is feasible when compared with the efforts that went into World War II and that "the greatest danger is continued ignorance and denial, which could make tragic consequences unavoidable."

Top Scientific Meeting Urges Coordinated Response To Economic And Environmental Crises

ScienceDaily (Nov. 11, 2008) — A fix for the economy must address ecological threats, a top international scientific meeting here has urged. Human society is moving dangerously beyond the planet's natural limits in a striking parallel to the financial debt crisis. “We're running the planet like a subprime loan,” Dr. Johan Rockström of the Stockholm Resilience Centre said. A coordinated response would reduce the risks of both kinds of crises in the future.

Scientific Community Called Upon To Resolve Debate On ‘Net Energy’ Once And For All

ScienceDaily (Nov. 11, 2008) — “Net energy is a (mostly) irrelevant, misleading and dangerous metric,” says Professor Bruce Dale, editor-in-chief of Biofuels, Bioresources and Biorefining (Biofpr) in the latest issue of the journal published November 7.

Environmentally Friendly Acrylic Glass Made Of Sugar: New Enzyme Could Revolutionize Production Of Plastics

ScienceDaily (Nov. 13, 2008) — In future, polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA for short) – better known as acrylic glass – could be made from natural raw materials such as sugars, alcohols or fatty acids. Compared with the previous chemical production process, a biotechnological process is far more environmentally friendly.

PMMA is manufactured by polymerising methyl methacrylate (MMA). In a bacterial strain, scientists at the University of Duisburg-Essen and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) have found an enzyme which could be used for the biotechnological production of a precursor of MMA.

U.S. 'Super Bugs' Invading South America

ScienceDaily (Nov. 13, 2008) — Two clones of highly antibiotic-resistant organism strains, which previously had only been identified in the United States, are now causing serious sickness and death in several Colombian cities including the capital Bogotá, say researchers at The University of Texas Medical School at Houston. The study, done in collaboration with Universidad El Bosque in Bogotá, is presented in a research letter published in the Nov. 13 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

U.S. clones of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis (VREF) have emerged in communities across Colombia. The variation of the MRSA clone, referred to as the USA 300, has been previously reported to be the most important cause of severe skin and soft tissue infections in the United States. The VREF clone is genetically related to a strain that hit a Houston hospital in 1994.

2008-11-16T12:21:00.002+09:00

Southern Ocean close to acid tipping point
ABC Science, 11 November 2008

Australian researchers have discovered that the tipping point for ocean acidification caused by human-induced CO2 emissions is much closer than first thought.

Scientists from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and CSIRO looked at seasonal changes in pH and the concentration of an important chemical compound, carbonate, in the Southern Ocean.

The results, published in today's Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, show that these seasonal changes will actually amplify the effects of human carbon dioxide emissions on ocean acidity, speeding up the process of ocean acidification by 30 years.

Dr Ben McNeil, senior research fellow at the UNSW's Climate Change Research Centre, says the ocean is an enormous sink for CO2, but unfortunately this comes at a cost.

"The ocean is a fantastic sponge for CO2, but as it dissolves in the ocean it reduces the pH of the ocean, so the ocean becomes more acidic," says Dr McNeil.

This acidification makes life especially hard for marine creatures such as pteropods - an important type of plankton found in the Southern Ocean - whose shells are made up largely of calcium carbonate.
Tipping point

Once the acidity of the Southern Ocean reaches a certain level, the shells of these and other calcareous marine creatures will start to dissolve.

"That's a really bad point to get to," says McNeil. "After that point, we can't go back unless we suck the CO2 out of the atmosphere."

This so-called 'tipping point' of acidification had been predicted to occur when atmospheric CO2 levels hit 550 parts per million, around the year 2060.

However, the new research shows levels of the carbonate that these creatures need to build and maintain their shells drops naturally in winter, due to natural variations in factors such as ocean temperature, currents and mixing, and pH.

This means the tipping point is likely to be reached at far lower atmospheric CO2 levels - around 450 ppm, says McNeil, which also happens to be the target set by the IPCC for stabilisation of CO2 emissions.

"That's the benchmark that a lot of climate scientists have said we want to reach," he says, but this concentration is forecast to be reached around 2030.

Dr McNeil says ocean acidification could lead to large scale ecosystem changes, affecting not just plankton but other marine life including fish, whales and dolphins.

"They're at the base of the food chain ... so right now we don't really know the ramifications."

2008-11-15T16:55:00.000+09:00

Ancient China: Lack Of Rainfall Could Have Contributed To Social Upheaval And Fall Of Dynasties
ScienceDaily (Nov. 7, 2008)

"The waxing and waning of summer monsoon rains are just one piece of the puzzle of changing climate and culture around the world," said Larry Edwards, geologist at the University of Minnesota and a co-author of the paper.

For example, the study showed that the dry period at the end of the Tang Dynasty coincided with a previously identified drought halfway around the world, in Meso-America, which has been linked to the fall of the Mayan civilization.

A second major finding concerns the relationship between temperature and the strength of the monsoons. For most of the last 1,810 years, as average temperatures rose, so, too, did the strength of the summer monsoon.

That relationship flipped, however, around 1960, a sign that the late 20th century weakening of the monsoon and drying in northwestern China was caused by human activity.

If carbon dioxide is the culprit, as some have proposed, the drying trend may well continue in Inner Mongolia, northern China and neighboring areas on the fringes of the monsoon's reach.

2008-11-14T17:17:00.000+09:00

Al Gore’s 5 Step Plan to Clean Energy
Live Earth, November 14, 2008

Al Gore introduced a five point plan that “…would simultaneously move us toward solutions to the climate crisis and the economic crisis–and create millions of new jobs that cannot be outsourced,” at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco. Gore claims that the two major crisis’s we currently face can be alleviated through the same steps:

1. Incentives for construction of concentrating solar-thermal power plants in the southwest, wind farms in the Midwest, and plants in geothermal “hot spots.”
2. A $400 billion investment over 10 years to build a “national smart grid” to distribute renewable energy.
3. Aid to automakers to convert to the production of plug-in hybrids. Smart-grid technology that enables the cars to be charged during off-peak hours.
4. A nationwide effort to retrofit buildings, which account for 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, to be more energy-efficient.
5. Climate regulations to cap carbon dioxide emissions.

2008-11-13T17:15:00.000+09:00

An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, October 2003

2008-11-12T09:35:00.001+09:00

The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, September 2008

There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then.

Read more..

2008-11-11T18:12:00.000+09:00

Press Release: TerraPass Carbon Management Services launches with 2.5 million credits under management
Posted in USA on November 10, 2008 via Carbon Offsets Daily

2008-11-10T10:21:00.000+09:00

Stabilize at 350 ppm or risk ice-free planet, warn NASA, Yale, Sheffield, Versailles, Boston et al
Climate Progress, Sunday, November 9th, 2008

2008-11-06T15:07:00.000+09:00

2003 "Ocean Cooling" Turns Out To Be A Technical Glitch
NASA Earth Observatory, November 5, 2008

2008-11-05T12:18:00.001+09:00

The high price of gas led to the low reliability of credit
The Red Mullet, November 5, 2008

Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets, in a recent report, is now saying that the current recession is caused by high oil prices. Defaulting mortgages are only a symptom of the high oil prices. We should be blaming the underlying cause--higher oil prices--rather than the symptom. These higher oil prices caused Japan and the Eurozone to enter into a recession even before the most recent financial problems hit. Higher oil prices started four of the last five world recessions; we shouldn't be too surprised if they started this one also.

See http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/soct08.pdf for more.

2008-10-30T11:27:00.000+09:00

The Flawed Economics of Nuclear Power

Lester R. Brown

Over the last few years the nuclear industry has used concerns about climate change to argue for a nuclear revival. Although industry representatives may have convinced some political leaders that this is a good idea, there is little evidence of private capital investing in nuclear plants in competitive electricity markets. The reason is simple: nuclear power is uneconomical.

In an excellent recent analysis, “The Nuclear Illusion,” Amory B. Lovins and Imran Sheikh put the cost of electricity from a new nuclear power plant at 14¢ per kilowatt hour and that from a wind farm at 7¢ per kilowatt hour. This comparison includes the costs of fuel, capital, operations and maintenance, and transmission and distribution. It does not include the additional costs for nuclear of disposing of waste, insuring plants against an accident, and decommissioning the plants when they wear out. Given this huge gap, the so-called nuclear revival can succeed only by unloading these costs onto taxpayers. If all the costs of generating nuclear electricity are included in the price to consumers, nuclear power is dead in the water.

To get a sense of the costs of nuclear waste disposal, we need not look beyond the United States, which leads the world with 101,000 megawatts of nuclear-generating capacity (compared with 63,000 megawatts in second-ranked France). The United States proposes to store the radioactive waste from its 104 nuclear power reactors in the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, roughly 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada. The cost of this repository, originally estimated at $58 billion in 2001, climbed to $96 billion by 2008. This comes to a staggering $923 million per reactor—almost $1 billion each—assuming no further repository cost increases. (See data).

In addition to being over budget, the repository is 19 years behind schedule. Originally slated to start accepting waste in 1998, it is now set to do so in 2017, assuming it clears all remaining hurdles. This leaves nuclear waste in storage in 121 temporary facilities in 39 states—sites that are vulnerable both to leakage and to terrorist attacks.

One of the risks of nuclear power is a catastrophic accident like the one at Chernobyl in Russia. The Price-Anderson Act, first enacted by Congress in 1957, shelters U.S. utilities with nuclear power plants from the cost of such an accident. Under the act, utilities are required to maintain private accident insurance of $300 million per reactor—the maximum the insurance industry will provide. In the event of a catastrophic accident, every nuclear utility would be required to contribute up to $95.8 million for each licensed reactor to a pool to help cover the accident’s cost.

The collective cap on nuclear operator liability is $10.2 billion. This compares with an estimate by Sandia National Laboratory that a worst-case accident could cost $700 billion, a sum equal to the recent U.S. financial bailout. So anything above $10.2 billion would be covered by taxpayers.

Another huge cost of nuclear power involves decommissioning the plants when they wear out. A 2004 International Atomic Energy Agency report estimates the decommissioning cost per reactor at $250–500 million, excluding the cost of removing and disposing of the spent nuclear fuel. But recent estimates show that for some reactors, such as the U.K. Magnox reactors that have high decommissioning waste volumes, decommissioning costs can reach $1.8 billion per reactor.

In addition to the costs just cited, the industry must cope with rising construction and fuel expenses. Two years ago, building a 1,500-megawatt nuclear plant was estimated to cost $2–4 billion. As of late 2008, that figure had climbed past $7 billion, reflecting primarily the scarcity of essential engineering and construction skills in a fading industry.

Nuclear fuel costs have risen even more rapidly. At the beginning of this decade uranium cost roughly $10 per pound. Today it costs more than $60 per pound. The higher uranium price reflects the need to move to ever deeper mines, which increases the energy needed to extract the ore, and the shift to lower-grade ore. In the United States in the late 1950s, for example, uranium ore contained roughly 0.28 percent uranium oxide. By the 1990s, it had dropped to 0.09 percent. This means, of course, that the cost of mining larger quantities of ore, and that of getting it from deeper mines, ensures even higher future costs of nuclear fuel.

Few nuclear power plants are being built in countries with competitive electricity markets. The reason is simple. Nuclear cannot compete with other electricity sources. This explains why nuclear plant construction is now concentrated in countries like Russia and China where nuclear development is state-controlled. The high cost of nuclear power also explains why so few plants are being built compared with a generation ago.

In an illuminating article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, nuclear consultant Mycle Schneider projects an imminent decline in world nuclear generating capacity. He notes there are currently 439 operating reactors worldwide. To date, 119 reactors have been closed, at an average age of 22 years. If we generously assume a much longer average lifespan of 40 years, then 93 reactors will close between 2008 and 2015. Another 192 will close between 2016 and 2025. And the remaining 154 will close after 2025.

But only 36 nuclear reactors are currently under construction worldwide—31 of them in Eastern Europe and Asia. Although there is much talk of building new nuclear plants in the United States, there are none under construction.

What these numbers indicate, Schneider points out, is that plant closings will soon exceed plant openings—and by a widening margin in the years ahead. The trend is clear. From 2000 to 2005, an average of 4,000 megawatts of nuclear generating capacity was added each year. Since 2005, this has dropped to only 1,000 megawatts of additional capacity per year.
Even if all reactors scheduled to come online by 2015 make it, the projected closing of 93 nuclear reactors by then will drop nuclear power generation roughly 10 percent below the current level. Unless governments start routinely granting operating permits for reactors more than 40 years old, a half-century of growth in world nuclear generating capacity is about to be replaced by a long-term decline.

Despite all the industry hype about a nuclear future, private investors are openly skeptical. In fact, while little private capital is going into nuclear power, investors are pouring tens of billions of dollars into wind farms each year. And while the world’s nuclear generating capacity is estimated to expand by only 1,000 megawatts this year, wind generating capacity will likely grow by 30,000 megawatts. In addition, solar cell installations and the construction of solar thermal and geothermal power plants are all growing by leaps and bounds.

The reason for this extraordinary gap between the construction of nuclear power plants and wind farms is simple: wind is much more attractive economically. Wind yields more energy, more jobs, and more carbon reduction per dollar invested than nuclear. Though nuclear power plants are still being built in some countries and governments are talking them up in others, the reality is that we are entering the age of wind, solar, and geothermal energy.

For more information on the new energy economy, see Chapters 11-13 in Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, available at www.earthpolicy.org for free downloading.

2008-10-29T17:41:00.002+09:00

Earth on course for eco 'crunch'
BBC News, Wednesday, 29 October 2008

The planet is headed for an ecological "credit crunch", according to a report issued by conservation groups.

The document contends that our demands on natural resources overreach what the Earth can sustain by almost a third.

The Living Planet Report is the work of WWF, the Zoological Society of London and the Global Footprint Network.

It says that more than three quarters of the world's population lives in countries where consumption levels are outstripping environmental renewal.

This makes them "ecological debtors", meaning that they are drawing - and often overdrawing - on the agricultural land, forests, seas and resources of other countries to sustain them.

The report concludes that the reckless consumption of "natural capital" is endangering the world's future prosperity, with clear economic impacts including high costs for food, water and energy.

"If our demands on the planet continue to increase at the same rate, by the mid-2030s we would need the equivalent of two planets to maintain our lifestyles," said WWF International director-general James Leape.

Dr Dan Barlow, head of policy at the conservation group's Scotland arm, added: "While the media headlines continue to be dominated by the economic turmoil, the world is hurtling further into an ecological credit crunch."

The countries with the biggest impact on the planet are the US and China, together accounting for some 40% of the global footprint.

The report shows the US and United Arab Emirates have the largest ecological footprint per person, while Malawi and Afghanistan have the smallest.

In the UK, the "ecological footprint" - the amount of the Earth's land and sea needed to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste - is 5.3 hectares per person.

This is more than twice the 2.1 hectares per person actually available for the global population.

The UK's national ecological footprint is the 15th biggest in the world, and is the same size as that of 33 African countries put together, WWF said.

"The events in the last few months have served to show us how it's foolish in the extreme to live beyond our means," said WWF's international president, Chief Emeka Anyaoku.

"Devastating though the financial credit crunch has been, it's nothing as compared to the ecological recession that we are facing."

He said the more than $2 trillion (£1.2 trillion) lost on stocks and shares was dwarfed by the up to $4.5 trillion worth of resources destroyed forever each year.

The report's Living Planet Index, which is an attempt to measure the health of worldwide biodiversity, showed an average decline of about 30% from 1970 to 2005 in 3,309 populations of 1,235 species.

An index for the tropics shows an average 51% decline over the same period in 1,333 populations of 585 species.

A new index for water consumption showed that for countries such as the UK, the average "water footprint" was far greater than people realised, with thousands of litres used to produce goods such as beef, sugar and cotton shirts.

"In Britain, almost two thirds [62%] of the average water footprint comes from use abroad to produce goods we consume," said Mr Leape.

2008-10-27T12:09:00.001+09:00

City Trash Plus Farm Leftovers May Yield Clean Energy

ScienceDaily (Oct. 20, 2008) — Tomorrow's household garbage might be blended with after-harvest leftovers from fields, orchards, and vineyards to make ethanol and other kinds of bioenergy. Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists are investigating this straightforward, eco-friendly strategy in their laboratories at the agency's Western Regional Research Center in Albany, Calif.

In most instances, agricultural wastes like rice straw, almond hulls, and the oversize outer leaves of iceberg lettuce will have to be pretreated before being used as a bioenergy resource. That's according to Kevin Holtman, an ARS research chemist who's working out the details of the garbage-to-gas approach.

The garbage, known as "municipal solid waste," or "MSW," would also be pretreated, Holtman noted.

The garbage would be processed in a jumbo-size autoclave, a device which acts something like a giant pressure cooker to convert the MSW into grey, lightweight clumps. The pretreated agricultural wastes and autoclaved MSW would then be transferred to a biofermenter. Yeasts and enzymes would be added, to make ethanol.

Holtman and colleagues David Bozzi, an engineering technician, and Diana Franqui, a microbiologist, are determining the best ways to use just water and heat, instead of hazardous chemicals, to pretreat the farm wastes, thus keeping the biorefining process environmentally friendly.

The team, part of the Bioproduct Chemistry and Engineering Research Unit at the Albany research center, is collaborating in the research and development venture with Comprehensive Resources, Recovery and Reuse, Inc., or "CR3," of Reno, Nev., and with the Salinas (Calif.) Valley Solid Waste Authority.

Besides producing biofuels, the biorefinery would also reduce the volume at landfills and minimize the need for new ones.

2008-10-26T11:00:00.000+09:00

Arctic is melting even in winter - The polar icecap is retreating and thinning at a record rate
The Times Online, October 26, 2008

The Arctic icecap is now shrinking at record rates in the winter as well as summer, adding to evidence of disastrous melting near the North Pole, according to research by British scientists.

They have found that the widely reported summer shrinkage, which this year resulted in the opening of the Northwest Passage, is continuing in the winter months with the thickness of sea ice decreasing by a record 19% last winter.

Usually the Arctic icecap recedes in summer and then grows back in winter. These findings suggest the period in which the ice renews itself has become much shorter.

Dr Katharine Giles, who led the study and is based at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London (UCL), said the thickness of Arctic sea ice had shown a slow downward trend during the previous five winters but then accelerated.

She said: “After the summer 2007 record melting, the thickness of the winter ice also nose-dived. What is concerning is that sea ice is not just receding but it is also thinning.”

The cause of the thinning is, however, potentially even more alarming. Giles found that the winter air temperatures in 2007 were cold enough that they could not have been the cause.

This suggests some other, longer-term change, such as a rise in water temperature or a change in ocean circulation that has brought warmer water under the ice.

If confirmed, this could mean that the Arctic is likely to melt much faster than had been thought. Some researchers say that the summer icecap could vanish within a decade.

The research, reported in Geophysical Research Letters, showed that last winter the average thickness of sea ice over the whole Arctic was 26cm (10%) less than the average thickness of the previous five winters.

However, sea ice in the western Arctic lost about 49cm of thickness. This region saw the Northwest Passage become ice-free and open to shipping for the first time in 30 years during the summer of 2007.

The UCL researchers used satellites to measure sea-ice thickness from 2002 to 2008. Winter sea ice in the Arctic is about 8ft thick on average.

The team is the first to measure ice thickness throughout the winter, from October to March, over more than half of the Arctic, using the European Space Agency’s Envisat satellite.

Giles’s findings confirm the more detailed work of Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, who has undertaken six voyages under the icecap in Royal Navy nuclear submarines since 1976 and has gathered data from six more voyages.

The vessels use an upward-looking echo-sounder to measure the thickness of sea ice above the vessel. The data gathered can then be compared with previous years to find changes in thickness.

Wadhams published his first paper in 1990, showing that the Arctic ice had grown 15% thinner between 1976 and 1987.

In March 2007 he went under the Arctic again in HMS Tireless and found that the winter ice had been thinning even more quickly; it was now 50% of the 1976 thickness.

“This enormous ice retreat in the last two summers is the culmination of a thinning process that has been going on for decades, and now the ice is just collapsing,” Wadhams said.

The scale of the ice loss has also been shown by other satellite-based observations that are used to measure the area of the Arctic icecap as it grows and shrinks with the seasons.

In winter it normally reaches about 5.8m square miles before receding to about 2.7m square miles in summer.

In 2007, however, the sun shone for many more days than normal, raising water temperatures to 4.3C above the average. By September the Arctic icecap had lost an extra 1.1m square miles, equivalent to more than 12 times the area of Britain.

That reduced the area of summer ice to 1.6m square miles, 43% smaller than it was in 1979, when satellite observations began.

At the heart of the melting in the Arctic is a simple piece of science. Ice is white, so most of the sunlight hitting it is reflected back into space. When it melts, however, it leaves open ocean, which, being darker, absorbs light and so gets warmer. This helps to melt more ice. It also makes it harder for ice to form again in winter. The process accelerates until there is no more ice to melt.

Wadhams said: “This is one of the most serious problems the world has ever faced.”

2008-10-23T16:43:00.000+09:00

UK announces world's largest algal biofuel project
guardian.co.uk, Thursday October 23 2008

2008-10-20T14:32:00.002+09:00

New Solar Energy Material Captures Every Color Of The Rainbow
ScienceDaily (Oct. 17, 2008)

Researchers have created a new material that overcomes two of the major obstacles to solar power: it absorbs all the energy contained in sunlight, and generates electrons in a way that makes them easier to capture.

Ohio State University chemists and their colleagues combined electrically conductive plastic with metals including molybdenum and titanium to create the hybrid material.

"There are other such hybrids out there, but the advantage of our material is that we can cover the entire range of the solar spectrum," explained Malcolm Chisholm, Distinguished University Professor and Chair of the Department of Chemistry at Ohio State.

Sunlight contains the entire spectrum of colors that can be seen with the naked eye -- all the colors of the rainbow. What our eyes interpret as color are really different energy levels, or frequencies of light. Today's solar cell materials can only capture a small range of frequencies, so they can only capture a small fraction of the energy contained in sunlight.

This new material is the first that can absorb all the energy contained in visible light at once.

The material generates electricity just like other solar cell materials do: light energizes the atoms of the material, and some of the electrons in those atoms are knocked loose.

Ideally, the electrons flow out of the device as electrical current, but this is where most solar cells run into trouble. The electrons only stay loose for a tiny fraction of a second before they sink back into the atoms from which they came. The electrons must be captured during the short time they are free, and this task, called charge separation, is difficult.

In the new hybrid material, electrons remain free much longer than ever before.

To design the hybrid material, the chemists explored different molecular configurations on a computer at the Ohio Supercomputer Center. Then, with colleagues at National Taiwan University, they synthesized molecules of the new material in a liquid solution, measured the frequencies of light the molecules absorbed, and also measured the length of time that excited electrons remained free in the molecules.

They saw something very unusual. The molecules didn't just fluoresce as some solar cell materials do. They phosphoresced as well. Both luminous effects are caused by a material absorbing and emitting energy, but phosphorescence lasts much longer.

To their surprise, the chemists found that the new material was emitting electrons in two different energy states -- one called a singlet state, and the other a triplet state. Both energy states are useful for solar cell applications, and the triplet state lasts much longer than the singlet state.

Electrons in the singlet state stayed free for up to 12 picoseconds, or trillionths of a second -- not unusual compared to some solar cell materials. But electrons in the triplet state stayed free 7 million times longer -- up to 83 microseconds, or millionths of a second.

When they deposited the molecules in a thin film, similar to how they might be arranged in an actual solar cell, the triplet states lasted even longer: 200 microseconds.

"This long-lived excited state should allow us to better manipulate charge separation," Chisholm said.

At this point, the material is years from commercial development, but he added that this experiment provides a proof of concept -- that hybrid solar cell materials such as this one can offer unusual properties.

The project was funded by the National Science Foundation and Ohio State's Institute for Materials Research.

Chisholm is working with Arthur J. Epstein, Distinguished University Professor of chemistry and physics; Paul Berger, professor of electrical and computer engineering and physics; and Nitin Padture, professor of materials science and engineering to develop the material further. That work is part of the Advanced Materials Initiative, one Ohio State's Targeted Investment in Excellence (TIE) programs.

The TIE program targets some of society's most pressing challenges with a major investment of university resources in programs with a potential for significant impact in their fields. The university has committed more than $100 million over the next five years to support 10 high-impact, mostly interdisciplinary programs.

Co-authors on the PNAS paper from Ohio State included: Gotard Burdzinski, a postdoctoral researcher; Yi-Hsuan Chou, a postdoctoral researcher; Florian Fiel, a former postdoctoral researcher; Judith Gallucci, a senior research associate; Yagnaseni Ghosh, a graduate student; Terry Gustafson, a professor; Yao Liu, a postdoctoral researcher; Ramkrishna Ramnauth, a former postdoctoral researcher; and Claudia Turro, a professor; all of the Department of Chemistry. They collaborated with Pi-Tai Chou and Mei-Lin Ho of National Taiwan University.

Journal reference:

1. G. T. Burdzinski et al. The remarkable influence of M2δ to thienyl π conjugation in oligothiophenes incorporating MM quadruple bonds. PNAS, October 2008

2008-10-17T14:19:00.002+09:00

"Air Pod" Compressed Air Powered Cars
EcoGeek, Friday, 10 October 2008

The AirPod seats three (one facing backward) and the "playful and futuristic" design allows for an extremely light-weight and inexpensive vehicle. The top speed of the thing is just over 40 miles per hour and it has a range of only 130 miles before a refill is needed, so...obviously it will be just for city use.

See pictures and more details (in French only) here.

2008-10-15T11:30:00.000+09:00

ARCTIC SEA ICE HITS SECOND-LOWEST EXTENT, LIKELY LOWEST VOLUME, SAY CU-BOULDER RESEARCHERS
Nasa Earth Observatory, October 2, 2008

Arctic sea ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to the second-lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle of melt and growth on Sept. 14, according to researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Preliminary data also indicate 2008 may represent the lowest volume of Arctic sea ice on record, according to the researchers. The declining Arctic sea ice is due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases that have elevated temperatures across the Arctic and strong natural variability in Arctic sea ice, according to scientists.

Average sea ice extent during September, a benchmark measurement in the scientific study of Arctic sea ice, was 1.8 million square miles. The record monthly low, set in 2007, was 1.65 million square miles. The third lowest monthly low was 2.15 square miles in 2005, according researchers at the center.

The 2008 low strongly reinforces the 30-year downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent, said CU-Boulder Research Professor Mark Serreze, an NSIDC senior scientist. The 2008 September low was 34 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000 and only 9 percent greater than the 2007 record. Because the 2008 low was so far below the September average, the negative trend in the September extent has been pulled downward, from a minus 10.7 percent per decade to a minus 11.7 percent per decade, he said.

"When you look at the sharp decline we have seen over the past 30 years, a recovery from lowest to second lowest is no recovery at all," Serreze said. "Both within and beyond the Arctic, the implications of the decline are enormous."

Conditions in the spring, at the end of the growth season, played an important role in the outcome of this year's melt, the researchers said. In March 2008, thin first-year ice covered a record high 73 percent of the Arctic basin. While it may appear to be a recovery of the sea ice, the large extent masked an important aspect of sea ice health since thin ice is more prone to melting during the summer. The widespread thin ice in spring 2008 set the stage for extensive ice loss during the melt season, according to the NSIDC researchers.

Through the 2008 melt season, a race developed between the melting of thin ice and gradually waning sunlight, said CU-Boulder Research Associate Walt Meier, a research scientist at NSIDC. Summer ice losses allowed significant solar energy to enter the ocean and heat up the water, melting even more ice from the bottom and sides. Warm oceans store heat longer than the atmosphere does, contributing to melt long after the sunlight has begun to wane, Meier said. In August 2008, the Arctic Ocean lost more ice than any previous August on record.

"Warm ocean waters helped contribute to ice losses this year, pushing the already thin ice pack over the edge," said Meier. "In fact, preliminary data indicate that 2008 probably represents the lowest volume of Arctic sea ice on record, partly because less multiyear ice is surviving now and the remaining ice is so thin."

In 2008, summer conditions worked together to save some first-year ice from melting and to "cushion" the thin ice pack from the effects of sunlight and warm ocean waters, preventing the "perfect storm" for ice loss seen in 2007, according to the researchers. Temperatures in 2008 were cooler than in 2007, although still warmer than average.

Cloudier skies also protected the ice from some melt, and wind patterns spread the ice pack out, leading to higher extent numbers, according to CU-Boulder Research Associate Julienne Stroeve, an NSIDC research scientist. The end result was the natural variability of short-term weather patterns provided enough of a "brake" to prevent a new record-low ice extent from occurring, she said.

"I find it incredible that we came so close to beating the 2007 record, without the especially warm and clear conditions we saw last summer," said Stroeve. "I hate to think what 2008 might have looked like if the weather patterns had set up in a more extreme way."

The melt season of 2008 reinforces the decline of Arctic sea ice documented over the past 30 years, said CU-Boulder Senior Research Associate Ted Scambos, NSIDC lead scientist. "The trend of decline in the Arctic continues, despite this year's slightly greater extent of sea ice," said Scambos. "The Arctic is more vulnerable than ever."

2008-10-13T14:23:00.000+09:00

Satellite data reveals extreme summer snowmelt
environmentalresearchweb, Oct 10, 2008

Satellite data reveals extreme summer snowmelt, record melting days in northern Greenland, says CCNY professor

The northern part of the Greenland ice sheet experienced extreme snowmelt during the summer of 2008, with large portions of the area subject to record melting days, according to Dr. Marco Tedesco, Assistant Professor of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at The City College of New York (CCNY), and colleagues. Their conclusion is based on an analysis of microwave brightness temperature recorded by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) onboard the F13 satellite.

"Having such extreme melting so far north, where it is usually colder than the southern regions is extremely interesting," Professor Tedesco said. "In 2007, the record occurred in southern Greenland, mostly at high elevation areas where in 2008 extreme snowmelt occurred along the northern coast."

Melting in northern Greenland lasted up to 18 days longer than previous maximum values. The melting index, i.e. the number of melting days times the area subject to melting) was three times greater than the 1979–2007 average, with 1.545.106 km2 over many days. The findings were reported in the October 6 edition of EOS, a weekly newspaper published by the American Geophysical Union.

"The results obtained from SSM/I are consistent with the outputs of the MAR (Modèl Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model, which indicated runoff 88% higher than the 1979 – 2007 mean and close to the 2007 value," Professor Tedesco noted. In addition, analysis of ground measurements from World Meteorological Organization automatic weather stations located close to where the record snowmelt was observed indicate surface/air maximum temperatures up to 3 ° Celsius above average.

The snowmelt and temperature anomalies occurred near Ellesmere Island, where several ice shelf break-ups were observed this summer. The region where the record melting days were recorded includes the Petermann glacier, which lost 29 km2 in July.

Professor Tedesco and his colleagues are currently analyzing possible causes for the high snowmelt in northern Greenland. High surface temperatures are, so far, the most evident factor. However other factors, such as solar radiation, could play a role, as well, he noted.

"The consistency of satellite, model and ground-based results provides a basis for a more robust analysis and synthesis tool," Professor Tedesco added. Next June, he and his colleagues plan to conduct field work in northern Greenland.

About The City College of New York

For more than 160 years, The City College of New York has provided low-cost, high-quality education for New Yorkers in a wide variety of disciplines. More than 15,000 students pursue undergraduate and graduate degrees in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences; The School of Architecture, Urban Design and Landscape Architecture (SAUDLA); The School of Education; The Grove School of Engineering, and The Sophie Davis School of Biomedical Education.

Source: ccny

2008-10-11T14:19:00.001+09:00

Q.Cells focuses on efficiency
environmentalresearchweb, Oct 10, 2008

Suddenly solar power is beginning to look serious. Fidelity Investments, the world’s biggest investment manager, has started to allocate significant assets to high-tech solar power companies. The Fidelity fund managers think these kind of companies show potential for high growth and big profits. If they are right we can expect to see solar power hit the grid in southern Mediterranean countries over the next few years and begin to make a serious contribution to the energy we consume.

Germany’s Q.Cells, the largest independent manufacturer of solar cells in the world, was one of the businesses that Fidelity Investments has invested in. The company recently opened a new research and development centre where it aims to produce the next generation of photovoltaic cells.

Improving the efficiency of solar cells is the main target. Currently most solar cells are constructed from a silicon wafer. When a photon collides with the cell, it sets electrons in motion and creates an electric current. To improve the cell’s ability to capture photons it is coated with a thin film of material, which helps photons to penetrate the cell. Electrical contacts are printed onto the cell at the top and bottom, to enable the electric current to flow.

Making a solar cell is an energy intensive business, and currently the average solar cell has to operate for a number of years before it has "paid back" the energy debt used to make it. What’s more, solar cells struggle to capture most of the photons that land on their surface – only around 15% of the Sun’s energy is made into useful electricity.

To tackle these problems Q.Cells is developing cells that do away with electrical contacts on one side, providing a larger surface area of cell for photons to penetrate. These 'back-contact' cells have efficiency levels of up to 21%.

Another area of interest is a new technology known as crystalline silicon on glass (CSG), where an extremely thin layer of silicon is deposited onto glass. This process shows promise for being cost-effective in the future.

The company is also creating a variable production line, which can be adapted to make different types of cells. This will enable researchers to test the production process and weigh up whether a cell is cost-efficient to produce.

With these new technologies Q.Cells hopes to produce a form of solar cell that can compete with traditional sources of power, such as coal, oil and gas. "We want to reach Grid Parity, the point when electricity from photovoltaics is cheaper than the one you buy from the grid (retail price)," Stefan Dietrich, head of public relations at Q.Cells, told environmentalresearchweb.

Just a few weeks ago the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) set a new target: to achieve a 12% share of photovoltaics in European Union electricity consumption. "It is ambitious, but realistic if you look at cost reduction, growing electricity prices and addressable markets," said Dietrich.

If things go well then solar power could become a key player in the fight against global warming.

About the author

Kate Ravilious is a contributing editor to environmentalresearchweb.

2008-10-09T14:18:00.000+09:00

Team led by Livermore scientists helps to resolve long-standing puzzle in climate science
environmentalresearchweb, Oct 13, 2008

A team led by Livermore scientists has helped reconcile the differences between simulated and observed temperature trends in the tropics.

Using state-of-the-art observational datasets and results from computer model simulations archived at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, LLNL researchers and colleagues from 11 other scientific institutions have refuted a recent claim that simulated temperature trends in the tropics are fundamentally inconsistent with observations. This claim was based on the application of a flawed statistical test and the use of older observational datasets.

Climate model experiments invariably predict that human-caused greenhouse gas increases should lead to more warming in the tropical troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere) than at the tropical land and ocean surface. This predicted "amplification" behavior is in accord with basic theoretical expectations.

Until several years ago, however, most satellite and weather balloon records suggested that the tropical troposphere had warmed substantially less than the surface.

For nearly a decade, this apparent discrepancy between simulations and reality was a major conundrum for climate scientists. The discrepancy was at odds with the overwhelming body of other scientific evidence pointing toward a "discernible human influence" on global climate.

A paper published online last year in the International Journal of Climatology claimed to show definitively that "models and observations disagree to a statistically significant extent" in terms of their tropical temperature trends. This claim formed the starting point for an investigation by a large team of climate modelers and observational data specialists, which was led by LLNL’s Benjamin Santer.

In marked contrast to the earlier claim, Santer’s international team found that there is no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and observed trends in tropical temperatures.

"We’ve gone a long way toward reconciling modeled and observed temperature trends in the problem area of the tropics," said Santer, the lead author of a paper now appearing online in the International Journal of Climatology.

There are two reasons for this reconciliation.

First, the analysis that reported disagreement between models and observations had applied an inappropriate statistical test, which did not account for the statistical uncertainty in observed warming trends. This uncertainty arises because the human-caused component of recent temperature changes is not perfectly known in any individual observed time series – it must be estimated from data that are influenced by both human effects and the "noise" of natural climate variability. Examples of such "noise" include large El Niño and La Niña events, which have pronounced effects on the year-to-year variability of tropical temperatures.

The Livermore-led consortium applied this inappropriate test to randomly generated data. The test revealed a strong bias in the method toward "detecting" differences that were not real.

The consortium modified the test to correctly account for uncertainty in estimating temperature trends from noisy observational data. With this modified test, there were no longer pervasive, statistically significant differences between simulated and observed tropical temperature trends.

The second reason for the reconciliation of models and observations was the availability of new and improved observational datasets, both for surface and tropospheric temperatures. The developers of these datasets used different procedures to identify and adjust for biases (such as those caused by changes over time in the instruments and platforms used to measure temperature).

Access to multiple, independently produced datasets provided the LLNL-led consortium with a valuable perspective on the inherent uncertainty in observations. Many of the recently developed observational datasets showed larger warming aloft than at the surface, and were more consistent with climate model results.

Even with improved datasets, there are still important uncertainties in observational estimates of recent tropospheric temperature trends that may never be fully resolved, and are partly a consequence of historical observing strategies, which were geared toward weather forecasting rather than climate monitoring.

"We should apply what we learned in this study toward improving existing climate monitoring systems, so that future model evaluation studies are less sensitive to observational ambiguity," Santer said.

Other researchers in this international consortium were Karl Taylor, Peter Gleckler and Stephen Klein (all at Livermore); Peter Thorne at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office Hadley Centre; Leo Haimberger at the University of Vienna; Tom Wigley and Doug Nychka at the National Center for Atmospheric Research; John Lanzante at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Susan Solomon at the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory; Melissa Free at the NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory; Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia; Tom Karl at the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center; Carl Mears and Frank Wentz at Remote Sensing Systems; Gavin Schmidt at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies; and Steve Sherwood at Yale University.

LLNL researchers were supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science.

Founded in 1952, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a national security laboratory, with a mission to ensure national security and apply science and technology to the important issues of our time. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is managed by Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.

Source: publicaffairs

2008-10-08T14:27:00.003+09:00

Totally Tubular Solar Power
via EcoGeek, 07 October 2008

Solyndra, Inc. today announced a new solar photovoltaic (PV) system for the commercial rooftop market. Solyndra's PV system is designed to generate significantly more solar electricity on an annual basis from typical low-slope commercial rooftops with lower installation costs than conventional flat panel PV technologies. Commercial rooftops represent a vast, underutilized resource and huge opportunity for generating solar electricity. Since its founding in 2005, Solyndra has been developing technology and ramping manufacturing capacity to produce its proprietary CIGS-based thin film PV system. Solyndra is currently shipping its systems, comprised of panels and mounting hardware, to fulfill more than $1.2 billion of multi-year contracts with customers in Europe and the United States.

The cylindrical solar panels (think of fluorescent tube lights...except in reverse) can absorb energy from every direction, and when combined with a white roof (which are now the only legal, flat roofs in California) can capture up to 20% more light than traditional solar panels. The other gigantic advantage is that they don't have to move to track the sun. The panels are always presenting some of their face directly perpendicular to the sun.

2008-10-07T11:50:00.000+09:00

NASA STUDY FINDS RISING ARCTIC STORM ACTIVITY SWAYS SEA ICE, CLIMATE
Nasa Earth Observatory, October 6, 2008

A new NASA study shows that the rising frequency and intensity of arctic storms over the last half century, attributed to progressively warmer waters, directly provoked acceleration of the rate of arctic sea ice drift, long considered by scientists as a bellwether of climate change.

NASA researcher Sirpa Hakkinen of Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., and colleagues from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Mass., and the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia, set out to confirm a long-standing theory derived from model results that a warming climate would cause an increase in storminess. Their observational approach enabled them to not only link climate to storminess, but to also connect increasing trends in arctic storminess and the movement of arctic ice -- the frozen ocean water that floats on the Arctic's surface. Results from their study as well as what they could mean for future climate change appeared this month in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters.

"Gradually warming waters have driven storm tracks -- the ocean paths in the Atlantic and Pacific along which most cyclones travel -- northward. We speculate that sea ice serves as the 'middleman' in a scenario where increased storm activity yields increased stirring winds that will speed up the Arctic's transition into a body of turbulently mixing warm and cool layers with greater potential for deep convection that will alter climate further," said Hakkinen. "What I find truly intriguing about confirming the link between the rise in storminess and increased sea ice drift is the possibility that new sinks for carbon dioxide may emerge from this relationship that could function as negative feedback for global warming."

2008-10-05T11:39:00.000+09:00

Recently Discovered Bacteria Use Radioactive Energy to Create Hydrogen and Sulfate
MSNBC, Monday, October 13, 2008

I wonder if this bacteria could be used to turn nuclear waste into a useful energy (hydrogen) producing by-product?

D. audaxviator [doesn't] require any products from photosynthesis - which sets it apart from deep-sea organisms that live in darkness but nevertheless depend on oxygen and nutrients filtering down from above. The metabolic cycle relies on radioactive elements in the surrounding rocks to break down water molecules, providing hydrogen and sulfate for the microbes to munch on.

"This was a microbial community that appeared to be using a source of energy that no other life on Earth had used, and that is radioactive decay," Pilcher said.

Chivian said the species can live completely independent of any other species - and based on an analysis of chemical isotopes in the water, it has apparently been doing so for millions of years.

2008-10-04T11:52:00.000+09:00

NASA MAPS SHED LIGHT ON CARBON DIOXIDE'S GLOBAL NATURE
Nasa Earth Observatory, October 9, 2008

PASADENA, Calif. - A NASA/university team has published the first global satellite maps of the key greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in Earth's mid-troposphere, an area about 8 kilometers, or 5 miles, above Earth. The team's study reveals new information on how carbon dioxide, which directly contributes to climate change, is distributed in Earth's atmosphere and moves around our world.

A research team led by Moustafa Chahine of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., found the distribution of carbon dioxide in the mid-troposphere is strongly influenced by major surface sources of carbon dioxide and by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the jet streams and weather systems in Earth's mid-latitudes. Patterns of carbon dioxide distribution were also found to differ significantly between the northern hemisphere, with its many land masses, and the southern hemisphere, which is largely covered by ocean.

2008-10-03T11:01:00.000+09:00

Green Energy Boom In Bailout Bill
forbes.com 10.02.08, 5:15 PM ET

Renewable energy providers will reap an immediate benefit from the raft of new incentives in Washington's financial rescue package. Better late than never.

John Berger, chief executive of Standard Renewable Energy, was holding his breath this week. "If it passes, this would complete the mainstreaming of solar energy in the U.S.," says Berger, who generates 85% of Standard's $20 million in annual revenues from solar installations. He figures the new tax credits could quintuple his solar business in a year.

The old set of federal incentives for energy investments in wind, solar, biomass and geothermal expire at the end of this year. The industry thought Congress was about to pass the bill back in May but squabbling over how to pay for the estimated $17 billion cost over eight years derailed negotiations. Both the House and Senate recently passed similar versions of new green energy incentives but hadn't agreed on a final version.

The eruption of bipartisan ire over the failed financial bailout bill Monday cast doubt over the green energy industry that Congress would be able to pass anything until after next year's presidential inauguration.

If it didn't pass? "The U.S. is just crossing the threshold to commercial viability," says Ezra Green, chief executive of Clear Skies Solar. "But if this bill doesn't go through, it's the end of solar power installation in America."

Orders for solar power systems had already slowed, with customers in a wait-and-see mode. "We started seeing orders drop off four months ago," says Rhone Resch, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association. "Many installations take more than three months from planning to completion."

Resch spent the first half of the week lobbying Congress not to let the energy incentives languish. He encouraged the 750 solar-related companies he represents to call their representatives and push for inclusion of renewable energy legislation in the bailout bill.

Solar power, far less economically viable than wind turbines, had the most to gain from the bill. The expiring incentives allowed homeowners to claim an investment tax credit for 30% of the cost of a new solar installation, but capped it at $2,000. The new law, written into the financial rescue bill, extends the 30% credit for eight years and, more importantly, eliminates the cap. That means that on a $27,000 residential solar system of 3.2 kw, a homeowner could take nearly $9,000 off his taxes the first year.

In a market with average electric rates of 11 cents per kwh that would reduce the payback on a solar system from 12 years to seven years. (By contrast, for wind power the bill merely extends by one year the existing 2 cents per kwh production tax credit.)

The new incentives will be a shot in the arm to companies like Akeena Solar (nasdaq: AKNS - news - people ), one of the largest residential solar panel installers, which cut 10% of its staff this year. Others have been seeking business outside the U.S., in countries with more generous incentives like Greece, Spain and India, where Clear Skies Solar has a $20 million installation in the works.

In Greece, a nationwide incentive pays the buyer of a solar system a rebate of 40% off the top. Then, over 20 years, the owner is guaranteed payment of 40 euro cents per kwh generated and put into the power grid. This makes for a three-year payback.

Resch says that even if the new credits were passed today, solar panels in the U.S. will be in tight supply. Because of U.S. uncertainty, panel manufacturers have been sending panels overseas to more solar-friendly countries. "If you're a small American installer you're not going to be able to get enough product."

That's good for manufacturers like Suntech (nyse: STP - news - people ). The Chinese panel maker is a favorite stock of John Maloney, portfolio manager at M&R Capital Management. Off 60% from its 52-week highs, Suntech trades at a price-earnings ratio of 26. Maloney sees worldwide sales and earnings growing faster than 20% a year.

Part of the rationale for big government-sponsored rebates on what is an otherwise uneconomic source of power is the strategic benefit of distributing small-scale power generation across the landscape rather than focusing it in a hulking coal or nuclear plant.

All of Standard Renewable's solar installations on Galveston Island withstood Hurricane Ike, and they were some of the only power generators up and running in the days afterward. Ike knocked out power to 93% of Centerpoint Energy's (nyse: CNP - news - people ) 2.2 million customers around Houston. More than two weeks after the storm, some customers are still without power, and repairs will cost as much as $500 million.

It's been a harsh reality for the city that bills itself as the energy capital of the world. Berger says he's already getting interest from Houstonians looking to add solar power when they repair hurricane damage to the roof.

Houston's oil execs might not appreciate that much of the funding of the bailout bill's green energy provisions will come through raising taxes on oil and gas production. Logic says that higher taxes on oil companies mean fewer incentives to find more oil. Maybe that's good.

In a recent report, Robert Pollin at the University of Massachusetts figures that investing $100 billion in green energy over two years would create 2 million new jobs, many of them in the hard-hit construction and manufacturing sectors. This, Pollin figures, would be four times more jobs than would be created if the same investment was made in the oil industry.

Still, the bailout bill gives fossil fuel its due. There's $2.55 billion in new federal spending on clean coal projects, with a stated priority toward funding on how to sequester carbon emissions from power plants by injecting carbon dioxide deep underground. The bill states that for every metric ton of carbon dioxide sequestered permanently underground, the Feds will pay $20. The payout will be $10 per ton for carbon dioxide injected into oil fields to help push up more oil. "It helps close the [financing] gap," says Donald Hodel, former secretary of energy in the Reagan administration. Hodel's Summit Power Group aims to build the first low-emissions coal-gasification power plant in oil-rich west Texas.

Without incentives, solar remains no-go. According to Department of Energy researchers, factoring in capital costs, one kwh of power generated by a new solar installation costs on the order of 25 cents, even with existing incentives. The all-in costs for one kwh from new coal or natural gas-fired plants is less than 7 cents. Green energy might create a lot of jobs and keep the refrigerator on after a hurricane, but creating value remains another challenge altogether.

2008-10-02T22:14:00.002+09:00

Cost of eliminating coal power in Japan

total japan coal = roughly 39,000 MW
Queens wind tower = worlds largest at 7.5 MW
http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/2149/86/

39,000/7.5 = Need 5,200 x worlds largest towers to erase coal
Wind = 1 000 Dollars per Kilowatt Average = 1 million / MW
http://www.windpower.org/en/tour/econ/index.htm
= $5.2 billion = 520 billion yen to erase coal

Wind Energy Reference Manual

Denmarks largest offshore wind farm approved
Denmark's largest offshore wind turbine park will be placed in the Kattegat strait. Parliament approved the construction of Denmark's largest offshore wind turbine park on Tuesday. The wind farm will be placed in the Kattegat strait of the North Sea.

The turbines will be capable of producing 400 megawatts of energy, which can power 400,000 homes for a year, according to the Climate and Energy Ministry.

There will be between 100 and 175 wind turbines placed in the northern Jutland waters, depending on their size.

2008-09-25T14:49:00.001+09:00

Environmental News Roundup

Landmark New Report Says Emerging Green Economy Could Create Tens of Millions of New "Green Jobs"

'Wave snakes' switch on to harness ocean's power

The Guardian/Library House CleanTech 100

2008-09-22T18:44:00.001+09:00

Sea Ice Melting - Movie

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003500/a003561/SeaIce_2008_w_dates_512x288.m1v

2008-09-22T16:05:00.002+09:00

On Global Warming "Skeptics"

There are still some of them around, and many of the leading climate change "skeptics" reputations are doubtful to say the least.

Here is a good list of well-known skeptics such as Bjorn Lomborg and Richard Lindzen:

http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/skeptics.htm

2008-09-18T22:49:00.006+09:00

Arctic Canary Singing Loud and Clear, for now..

Is this the final song of the fat lady? Cause we all know what happens when that's over.. This week the NSIDC announced that the extent of summer Arctic sea ice had reached the second lowest point since satellite records began, and perhaps in the entire history of humankind.

As if that news wasn't bad enough, 2007 and 2008 should naturally have been relatively cool, with La Nina still in effect and the Sun at a solar minimum. Unfortunately, as the graph below shows, what should have been naturally cool years did nothing to prolong the Arctic summer ice's death knell. The last two years, with the second lowest and the lowest sea ice extent on record respectively, have definitely not shown any sign of a slowing pace.
Joseph Romm over at Climate Progress is betting $1,000 against some eminent scientists that Arctic sea ice will be gone entirely in summer by 2020. Sadly though, his opponents are not far betting far behind. Their best guess is 2030. And where the Arctic ice goes, Greenland is sure to follow. Though the timeframes may be uncertain one thing is for sure, however long that may take the results will not be pretty.

Historians from the future, if there is one to speak of, may well look back at this point in history and say, "But the evidence was right there in front of them! The melting of the Arctic was a sign as sure fire as any canary in a coal mine that something wasn't right in Kansas." And they'd be right.

The biggest problem that we face today is there's no way to back out of this hole we've dug ourselves into, we have to change direction and try to dig ourselves out in a different and new direction, and hope like hell that we find the light of day on the other side, before the whole thing blows up in our face.

2008-09-18T12:01:00.002+09:00

MMC Values for CO2 Output for Electricity Production by Fuel Type

Not sure where they get their values from, but good reference point to start.

The following indices were used to convert each fuel type to CO2:
- Purchased electricity 0.381 kg-CO2/kWh
- City gas 2.348 kg-CO2/m3
- Kerosene 2.491 kg-CO2/L
- Heavy fuel oil 2.709 kg-CO2/L

2008-09-17T14:08:00.001+09:00

Ice Shelves Continue Their Not-So-Slow Retreat
Earth Observatory, NASA, September 5, 2008

In 1907, Arctic explorer Robert Peary recounted his recent trip along the northern coast of Canada’s Ellesmere Island and described a “glacial fringe” along the island’s northern coast. Modern glaciologists have deduced that this ice fringe formed roughly 4,500 years ago and, in Peary’s time, was likely a continuous ice shelf covering some 8,900 square kilometers (almost 3,500 square miles). By the 1950s, much of that ice had disintegrated.

By July 2008, what had once been a massive ice fringe along the northern Ellesmere coast had been reduced to five isolated ice shelves: Serson, Petersen, Milne, Ward Hunt, and Markham. (The Ayles Ice Shelf broke free in 2005.) These five ice shelves constituted the last remaining ice shelves in Canada.
On July 22, 2008, a new wave of ice shelf disintegration began and, by late August, these ice shelves had lost a total of 214 square kilometers (83 square miles). A group of researchers led by Derek Mueller at Trent University, and Luke Copland at the University of Ottawa, announced the changes in early September 2008.

The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf lost a total of 42 square kilometers (16 square miles). The Serson Ice Shelf lost 122 square kilometers (47 square miles)—60 percent of its previous area. The Markham Ice Shelf, with a total area of 50 square kilometers (19 square miles) completely broke away from the Ellesmere coast.

Read more..

2008-09-15T11:38:00.001+09:00

IPCC Emissions Scenarios
http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm

2008-09-15T11:10:00.004+09:00

Arctic sea ice now second-lowest on record
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News, August 26, 2008

Sea ice extent has fallen below the 2005 minimum, previously the second-lowest extent recorded since the dawn of the satellite era. Will 2008 also break the standing record low, set in 2007? We will know in the next several weeks, when the melt season comes to a close. The bottom line, however, is that the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent characterizing the past decade continues.

Map of sea ice from space, showing sea ice, continents, ocean

Figure 1. Daily Arctic sea ice extent for August 26, 2008, fell below the 2005 minimum, which was 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1979 to 2000 average extent for that day. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole.

Overview of conditions

With several weeks left in the melt season, sea ice extent dipped below the 2005 minimum to stand as the second-lowest in the satellite record. The 2005 minimum, at 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles), held the record-low minimum until last year.

Recent ice retreat primarily reflects melt in the Chukchi Sea off the Alaskan coast and the East Siberian Seas off the coast of eastern Russia.

Update 9:15 am MT August 27:

Arctic sea ice extent on August 26 was 5.26 million square kilometers (2.03 million square miles), a decline of 2.06 million square kilometers (795,000 square miles) since the beginning of the month. Extent is now within 430,000 square kilometers (166,000 square miles) of last year's value on the same date and is 1.97 million square kilometers (760,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.

Conditions in context

Through the beginning of the melt season in May until early August, daily ice extent for 2008 closely tracked the values for 2005.

In early August of 2005, the decline began to slow; in August of 2008, the decline has remained steadily downward at a brisk pace. The 2005 minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) occurred on September 21.

Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent.The solid light blue line indicates 2008; the dark blue dotted line indicates 2005; the dashed green line shows extent for 2007; the gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

See also..

PRESS RELEASE: Models Underestimate Loss of Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC, 30 April 2007

Arctic sea ice is melting at a significantly faster rate than projected by the most advanced computer models, a new study concludes (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Actual observations of September Arctic sea ice, in red, show a more severe decline than any of the eighteen computer models, averaged in a dashed line, that the 2007 IPCC reports reference.

Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that satellite and other observations show the Arctic ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the eighteen computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in preparing its 2007 assessments.

2008-09-15T10:11:00.005+09:00

ScienceDaily Roundup

Curbing Coal Emissions Alone Might Avert Climate Danger, Say Researchers
ScienceDaily (Sep. 13, 2008)

An ongoing rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels might be kept below harmful levels if emissions from coal are phased out within the next few decades, say researchers. They say that less plentiful oil and gas should be used sparingly as well, but that far greater supplies of coal mean that it must be the main target of reductions.

"The most important mitigation strategy we recommend—a phase-out of carbon dioxide emissions from coal within the next few decades—is feasible using current or near-term technologies." Read more..

Genetically Engineered Thermophilic Bacterium: Researchers Advance Cellulosic Ethanol Production
ScienceDaily (Sep. 12, 2008)

A team of researchers from Dartmouth's Thayer School of Engineering and Mascoma Corporation in Lebanon, N.H., have made a discovery that is important for producing large quantities of cellulosic ethanol, a leading candidate for a sustainable and secure alternative to petroleum-derived transportation fuel. For the first time, the group has genetically engineered a thermophilic bacterium, meaning it's able to grow at high temperatures, and this new microorganism makes ethanol as the only product of its fermentation. Read more..

Bad Sign For Global Warming: Thawing Permafrost Holds Vast Carbon Pool
ScienceDaily (Sep. 7, 2008)

Permafrost blanketing the northern hemisphere contains more than twice the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, making it a potentially mammoth contributor to global climate change depending on how quickly it thaws.

Ted Schuur, an associate professor of ecology at the University of Florida, said the burning of fossil fuels contributes about 8.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide each year. Deforestation of the tropical forests and replacement of the forest with pasture or other agriculture is thought to add about 1.5 billion tons per year. How much permafrost will add will depend on how fast it thaws, but Schuur said his research indicates the figure could approach 0.8-1.1 billion tons per year in the future if permafrost continues to thaw.Read more..

Compost Heap Bacteria Could Provide 10% Of UK Transport Fuel Needs
ScienceDaily (Sep. 10, 2008)

Bacteria found in compost heaps able to convert waste plant fibre into ethanol could eventually provide up 10% of the UK's transport fuel needs. Read more..

See also..
Fuel From Food Waste: Bacteria Provide Power: ScienceDaily (July 17, 2008) — Researchers have combined the efforts of two kinds of bacteria to produce hydrogen in a bioreactor, with the product from one providing food for the other. According to an article in the August issue of Microbiology Today, this technology has an added bonus: leftover enzymes can be used to scavenge precious metals from spent automotive catalysts to help make fuel cells that convert hydrogen into energy.

Manure 'Smells Like Money' As Energy Costs Rise
ScienceDaily (Sep. 10, 2008)

With energy prices driving the cost of agricultural inputs up, nutrient-rich manure is getting another look. Read more..

See also..
Cow Power Could Generate Electricity For Millions: ScienceDaily (July 25, 2008) — Converting livestock manure into a domestic renewable fuel source could generate enough electricity to meet up to three per cent of North America's entire consumption needs and lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), according to new research.

2008-09-09T15:11:00.003+09:00

17956 HY-Mini - Personal Portable Wind Power
guardianecostore.co.uk

Attach this innovative portable and personal wind turbine to your arm, bike bars, or windowsill, and it will capture wind energy, transforming it into usable power for your mobile devices. This brilliantly clever recharger is perfect for travel and cycling holidays! With a built-in turbine, it's chargable by kinetic energy (requires minimum wind speed 9mph), but you can also charge it using an ordinary socket.
Plug in, charge up, and it becomes a power storage unit. HY-Mini is universally adaptable for your mobile devices. An AC/DC power adaptor for 3-pin wall plugs, USB transfer cable and mobile phone (Nokia / Motorola / Sony Ericsson /Samsung / LG) adaptors are included. MP3 player, iPod, PDA, digital camera, and other 5V handheld devices can be charged with original manufacturer USB or aftermarket USB cables.

Order an Armband Kit (17958) or Bicycle Kit (17957) to attach the charger for power on-the-move.

Personal & Portable Wind Power

Multiple power inputs:
- Conventional 100~240V AC adaptor
- PC / laptop USB 2.0 outlet
- Built-in supplemental wind powered generator. (Input voltage and current varied with different wind speed and battery loading conditions.)
NOTE: Due to safety concerns for the lithium-ion battery, charge-in voltage and current are limited.

Universal power outputs:
- USB 2.0 output at 5V adaptive 200mA ~ 850mA depending on devices.
- Common 5V digital devices include mobile phone, MP3 player, iPod, PDA, digital camera, etc. (Recharge mobile device time via USB is about 1-2 hours depending on devices).

USB adaptor mobile phone support lists:
Nokia: 3230, 3250, 6101, 6192, 6103, 6111, 6131, 6170, 6233, 6270, 6280, 6300, N70,N80, N90, N91, N92
Motorola: V3 V3i, U6, A668, E770, E680, E680i, E375, MPX200,E1070, L6
Sony Ericsson: Z520i, Z530i, K510i, K600i, K608i, W700i, K750i, W800i,W810i, W810i, W900i, W550i, W300i
Samsung: A580, A630, A800, A850, A900, A920,A930, A940, A950, A960, A970, T209, T309, T319, T609, N200, N400, N625, X495, X496,X497, X507, ZX10, C207, D307, D357, V200, V205, V206, E635, A790, A795, D347, D407 LG: U8110/ U8120/ U8130/ U8138/ U8150/ U8180/ U8290/ U8330 or compatible model
NOTE: HYmini may be compatible with many more other models or handheld devices that are not listed, please check on www.hymini.com for latest information.

KEY FEATURES:
-Wind turbine and conventional recharger.
- Suitable for iPods, MP3 players, mobile phones, cameras, and other mobile devices.
- Includes USB cable and a connector for each manufacturer, and AC/DC power adaptor for 3-pin wall plugs.
Approx 100g – H13cm x W9cm x D3cm
17957 HY-Mini - Personal Portable Wind Power Bicycle Kit
On a bike ride - this Bicycle Kit allows you to clip your portable HY-Mini (17956) to your bike handlebars allowing you to generate wind power by harnessing the natural power of wind energy. The Wind Turbine can then be used to recharge your mobile phone, camera, mp3 player or iPod; this bicycle kit is perfect for a cycling holiday.

Personal & Portable Wind Power
This kit is for use with the Hy-Mini Personal Wind Turbine. HY-mini is universally adaptable for your mobile devices. An AC/DC power adaptor for 3-pin wall plugs, USB transfer cable and mobile phone (Nokia / Motorola / Sony Ericsson /Samsung / LG) adaptors are included. MP3 player, iPod, PDA, digital camera, and other 5V handheld devices can be charged with original manufacturer USB or aftermarket USB cables.

Hands-free bicycle kit and holder for use with Mini Personal Turbine. Hy-Mini Personal Turbine not included. Hy-Mini Personal Turbine available in black only, see below.
Bracket = H5cm x W7cm x D2cm

2008-09-08T09:22:00.003+09:00

Science Daily News Roundup
2-8 September 2008

Earth Has Had Sharp Climatic Shifts In Past: Is Earth Nearing Another Tipping Point?
- [researchers report] that sharp climatic shifts in the past were systematically preceded by subtle alterations in fluctuation patterns. These alterations are proven to be characteristic of systems approaching tipping points. This finding supports the theory that the sharp climatic shifts in the past have happened as the Earth system went over critical thresholds where self-catalyzing change pushed it further towards a contrasting state... The well known projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on the assumption of rather linear change. Although some feedbacks in the Earth system may dampen change, the new results imply that we should also consider the possibility that the climate will cross a tipping point after which changes will be amplified.

Global Sea-rise Levels By 2100 May Be Lower Than Some Predict, Says New Study
- Considering all major sources of sea level rise, including Greenland, Antarctica, smaller glaciers and ice caps and the thermal expansion of water, the team's most likely estimate of roughly 3 to 6 feet by 2100 is still potentially devastating to huge areas of the world in low-lying coastal areas, said Pfeffer.

Faster Rise In Sea Level Predicted From Melting Greenland Ice Sheet, Based On Lessons From Ice Age
- Wisconsin-Madison geologist Anders Carlson reports that sea level rise from greenhouse-induced warming of the Greenland ice sheet could be double or triple current estimates over the next century.

Global Warming Greatest In Past Decade
- Researchers confirm that surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were warmer over the last 10 years than any time during the last 1300 years, and, if the climate scientists include the somewhat controversial data derived from tree-ring records, the warming is anomalous for at least 1700 years.

Glaciers In The Pyrenees Will Disappear In Less Than 50 Years, Study Finds
- In just 15 years, since 1990, glaciological calculations have shown that rapid melting has caused the total regression of the smallest glaciers and 50%-60% of the surface area of the largest glaciers.

Global Warming: Warmer Seas Linked To Strengthening Hurricanes, According to New Research
- Using global satellite data, FSU geography Professor James B. Elsner, University of Wisconsin-Madison Professor James P. Kossin and FSU postdoctoral researcher Thomas H. Jagger found that the strongest tropical cyclones are, in fact, getting stronger -- and that ocean temperatures play a role in driving this trend. This is consistent with the "heat-engine" theory of cyclone intensity.

2008-09-03T12:31:00.004+09:00

Environment: Solar plant yields water and crops from the desert
The Guardian, Wednesday September 3 2008

Vast greenhouses that use sea water for crop cultivation could be combined with solar power plants to provide food, fresh water and clean energy in deserts, under an ambitious proposal from a team of architects and engineers.

The Sahara forest project will use seawater and solar power to grow food in greenhouses across the desert. Photograph: Exploration Architecture

The Sahara Forest Project, which is already running demonstration plants in Tenerife, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, envisages huge greenhouses with concentrated solar power (CSP), a technology that uses mirrors to focus the sun's rays, creating steam to drive turbines to generate electricity.

The installations would turn deserts into lush patches of vegetation, according to its designers, and do away with the need to dig wells for fresh water, an activity that has depleted aquifers across the world.

Charlie Paton, a member of the team, and the inventor of the Seawater Greenhouse, said the scheme was a proven way to transform arid environments. "Plants need light for growth but they don't like heat beyond a certain point," he said.

Above certain temperatures the amount of water lost through leaves' stomata rises so much plants stop their photosynthesis and do not grow. The solar farm planned by the project runs seawater evaporators, pumping damp, cool air through the greenhouses. This reduces the warmth inside by about 15C, compared with the temperature outside.

At the other end of the greenhouse from the evaporators, water vapour is condensed. Some of this fresh water is used to water the crops, some for cleaning the solar mirrors.

"So we've got conditions in the greenhouse of high humidity and lower temperature," said Paton. "The crops sitting in this slightly steamy, humid condition can grow fantastically well."

The designers said that virtually any vegetables could be grown in the greenhouses. The demonstration plants already produce lettuces, peppers, cucumbers and tomatoes. The nutrients to grow the plants could come from local seaweed or be extracted from the seawater.

Michael Pawlyn, of Exploration Architecture, based in London, worked on the Eden Project for seven years and is now part of the Sahara Forest team. He said that the Seawater Greenhouse and CSP provided substantial synergies for each other. "Both technologies work extremely well in hot, dry, desert locations. CSP produces a lot of waste heat and we'd be able to use that to evaporate more seawater from the greenhouse. And CSP needs a supply of clean, de-mineralised water in order for the [electricity generating] turbines to function and to keep the mirrors at peak output. It just so happens the Seawater Greenhouse produces large quantities of this."

Paton said the greenhouse produced more than five times the fresh water needed to water the plants inside, so some of the water could be released to the outside, creating a microclimate for hardier plants such as jatropha, a crop that can be turned into biofuel.

The cost of the Sahara Forest Project could be relatively low as both CSP and Seawater Greenhouses are proven technologies. The designers estimate that building 20 hectares (nearly 50 acres) of greenhouses combined with a 10MW CSP scheme would cost about €80m (£65m).

Paton said groups in countries across the Middle East, including in UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, have expressed interest in possibly funding demonstration projects.

He said use of Seawater Greenhouses could reverse the environmental damage done by the glasshouses already built in places such as the desert region of Almeria, southern Spain, where, constructed over the past 20 years to grow salad crops, they now covered more than 40,000 hectares.

Paton said: "They take water out of the ground something like five times faster than it comes in, so the water table drops and becomes more saline. The whole of Spain is being sucked dry. If one were to convert them all to the Seawater Greenhouse concept it would turn an unsustainable solution into a more sustainable one."

Pawlyn said: "In places like Oman they've effectively sterilised large areas of land by using groundwater that's become increasingly saline. The beauty of the Sahara Forest scheme is that you can reverse that process and turn barren land into biologically productive land."

Neil Crumpton, an energy specialist at Friends of the Earth, said the potential of these desert technologies was huge. "Concentrated solar power mirror arrays covering just 1% of the Earth's deserts could supply a fifth of all current global energy consumption. And 1 million tonnes of sea water could be evaporated every day from just 20,000ha of greenhouses."

Governments should invest in the technologies and "not be distracted by lobbyists promoting dangerous nuclear power or nuclear-powered desalination schemes", Crumpton added.

The International Energy Agency estimates that the world needs to invest more than $45 trillion (£22.5 trillion) in new energy systems over the next 30 years.

2008-09-02T14:18:00.003+09:00

Clean Energy Asia 2008

THE LARGEST CLEAN ENERGY EVENT IN ASIA

3 conferences within a week at one single location, Clean Energy Asia 2008 is the most encompassing and comprehensive event in Asia where over 500 clean energy specialists from Asia and beyond gather to discuss commercial issues, identify viable business ventures and form strategic partnerships in a fast evolving industry.

Covering 3 main conferences, Clean Energy Asia 2008 will include:

Ethanol & Biofuels
Carbon Finance and Trading
Solar Energy

Held in conjunction with a service and technology showcase area, Clean Energy Asia 2008 will also be the most dedicated buying and selling platform for Asian and international specialists in clean energy industry.

Be part of Asia's biggest Clean Energy event! To explore speaking and marketing opportunities, contact Liberina Octavia at +65 6322 2736 or download the Sponsorship Prospectus now.

» Reserve your seat now

Carbon Finance Asia 2008

The only platform where CERs buyers, traders, project developers and investors gain access to a diverse group of carbon project owners in Asia.

Building on the success of the first annual Carbon Finance Asia 2007, Carbon Finance Asia 2008 will continue to grow as one of the most important gatherings of industry players in carbon finance and trade industry across Asia and internationally.

This event aims to facilitate the meeting of buyers and sellers of CERs across Asia’s key CDM projects. The event also showcases key CDM projects from Asia, latest carbon funds and trading activities in Asia Pacific.

To participate actively, contact Liberina Octavia at +65 6322 2736 now!

Solar Energy Asia 2008

Solar Energy Asia 2008 will provide the largest Asian networking platform where key players from the Solar Energy Industry including energy users and producers, manufacturers of energy equipment, parts and supplies, builders, architects, solution providers, investors, analysts, regulators and other solar energy industry specialists will gather to discuss the latest strategic, regulatory, technical and economic issues, identifying viable business ventures and form strategic partnerships in a fast evolving industry.

» Reserve your seat now

> see list of speakers

Waste-to-Energy Asia 2008: the latest inclusion to the Clean Energy family

Energy recovery from waste has enormous potential in Asia. According to ADB, “The average daily output of solid waste alone from Asia’s largest cities today has been estimated to be 760,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 1.8 million tons per day by 2025.”

> view Waste-to-Energy full programme

> view speakers list

Waste-to-Energy 2008 will bring together the public and private sectors to discuss the opportunities, challenges and the economic benefits of converting waste materials to energy and alternative fuels.

Covering different themes on municipal solid waste-to-fuels, biomass-to-fuels, plastics-to-fuels, waste oils and grease-to-fuels, landfill gasses-to-energy and agricultural waste-to-fuels, this event provides an excellent opportunity for Asian municipal councils, landfill owners, incineration plant owners, industrial waste generators and agriculture operators to find out how they can monitise their waste and earn carbon credits at the same time.

For the first time in Asia, Waste-to-energy and waste-to-fuel technology, equipment and service providers will have access to different waste generators across the region. This will be an unrivalled platform for the vendor community to showcase their technology, equipment and services to a growing market in Asia

Conference themes:
• Economic benefits and business models for commercializing renewable energy from unexploited waste assets?
• Waste and renewable energy policies in Asia
• Municipal solid waste (MSW)-to-fuels & energy recovery
• Plastics-to-Fuels
• Landfill gasses-to-energy
• Agricultural waste-to-fuels & energy recovery
• Developing CDM projects and earning carbon credits

For more information, please contact Robin Ang at +65 6322 2756.

2008-09-02T11:03:00.003+09:00

What is an amorphous solar cell?

An amorphous solar cell is a type of solar cell that is relatively cheap to produce and widely available. They are named so because of their composition at the microscopic scale. Amorphous means "without shape". When the term is applied to solar cells it means that the silicon material that makes up the cell is not highly structured or crystalized.

Amorphous solar cells are usually created by applying doped silicon material to the back of a plate of glass. The cells usually appear dark brown on the sun-facing side and silvery on the conductive side. When produced as a solar panel (a collection of many solar cells) it will appear to have several thin parallel lines running across its surface. These thin lines are actually breaks in the N and P layers of the silicon substrate and they create the boundaries of individual cells in the panel. Amorphous solar panels usually come without any obvious hook-up points or wires. It can be very puzzling to figure out how to use them!

Some links for solar panels and amorphous solar cells:

http://www.pvresources.com/en/solarcells.php
http://simon.baymoo.org/universe/ee/solar/amorphous.html
http://www.solarpanelinfo.com/

2008-08-31T17:10:00.002+09:00

"Staff of the Gods" Set to Strike Republican Convention
- Gustav prompts talk of altering RNC agenda

Massive hurricane by the name of Gustav, or "Staff of the Gods", set to strike republican convention.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/30/rnc.gustav/index.html

Fittingly ironic that Bush, Co. should be attacked by the very thing that they deny.

At least the people of New Orleans have been forewarned this time, so here's hoping its only the Republicans who suffer.

2008-08-31T05:31:00.003+09:00

Arctic ice second-lowest ever; polar bears affected
reuters.com, Wed Aug 27, 2008 3:57pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Arctic sea ice shrank to its second-lowest level ever, U.S. scientists said on Wednesday, with particular melting in the Chukchi Sea, where polar bears were recently seen swimming far off the Alaskan coast.

A polar bear is seen in the water during an aerial survey off the Alaska coast in this photo taken August 15, 2008. Arctic sea ice shrank to its second-lowest level ever, U.S. scientists said on Wednesday, with particular melting in the Chukchi Sea, where polar bears were recently seen swimming far off the Alaskan coast.

REUTERS/Geoff York/World Wildlife Fund/Handout

This year's Arctic ice melt could surpass the extraordinary 2007 record low in the coming weeks. Last year's minimum ice level was reached on September 16, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Even if no records are broken this year, the downward trend in summer sea ice in the Arctic continues, the Colorado-based center said. Last year's record was blamed squarely on human-spurred climate change.

"No matter where we stand at the end of the melt season it's just reinforcing this notion that Arctic ice is in its death spiral," said Mark Serreze, a scientist at the center. The Arctic could be free of summer ice by 2030, Serreze said by telephone.

This year's data "primarily reflects melt in the Chukchi Sea off the Alaskan coast and the East Siberian Seas off the coast of eastern Russia," the center said.

The Chukchi Sea is home to one of the world's largest polar bear populations and also includes a vast area where the United States sold oil and gas rights worth $2.66 billion last year.

On Tuesday, Arctic sea ice stretched over 2.03 million square miles, which is less than the 2005 mark of 2.05 million square miles, set on September 21 of that year, the center's analysis found.

The record drop in 2007 left a minimum ice cover of 1.59 million square miles. The fabled Northwest Passage was open for the first time in memory.

Government scientists reported seeing at least nine polar bears swimming in open water over a six-hour period on August 16, including one more than 50 miles offshore, World Wildlife Fund officials said.

LONGER SWIMS FOR POLAR BEARS

That represents a huge increase over previous sightings, said Margaret Williams of the fund's Alaska office. A total of 12 polar bears were spotted in open water between 1987 and 2003, Williams said in a telephone interview.

In 2004, she said, four drowned bears were observed.

"Unfortunately it's what we might expect to see if bears are forced to swim longer distances," Williams said. "The Arctic is gigantic. When you have nine bears sighted in one transect (route) ... one can assume that there are likely a lot more bears swimming in open water."

She noted that bears are capable swimmers and rely on sea ice as platforms for hunting seals, their main prey. If relegated to land, bears have little to hunt and sometimes feed on carrion or garbage and can be a threat to humans.

As more Arctic ice melts, bears are forced to swim longer distances to find adequate platforms for hunting. Rescuing bears in distress in open water is problematic, Williams said: tranquilizing the bears sends them into the water to drown.

The U.S. government in May listed polar bears as a threatened species because their icy habitat was disappearing, but offered no plans to address climate change or drilling in the Arctic for fossil fuels that spur the climate-warming greenhouse effect.

Summer ice melt in the Arctic is seen as a strong indicator of climate change, and feeds on itself in what scientists call a positive feedback loop where warming exposes dark sea water, which absorbs more solar radiation than the white ice.

Arctic sea ice is sometimes dubbed Earth's air conditioner for its ability to moderate world climate. In the last decade, this ice has declined by roughly 10 percent.

2008-08-31T05:29:00.000+09:00

Bicycle City is the largest planned car-free communities project in the United States.

The Bicycle City community is growing—100,000+ people per month visit our website.

2008-08-25T19:45:00.003+09:00

On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change
Martin L. Weitzman, REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008

Abstract

With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications
of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability high-impact catastro-
phes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters
induce a critical tail fatteningof posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened
tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is
theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds
on overall damages. This paper shows that the economic consequences of fat-tailed
structural uncertainty (along with unsureness about high-temperature damages) can
readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate-change policy analysis.

2008-08-25T09:02:00.002+09:00

Continued Breakup Of Two Of Greenland's Largest Glaciers Shown In Satellite Images
ScienceDaily (Aug. 22, 2008)

Researchers monitoring daily satellite images of Greenland’s glaciers have discovered break-ups at two of the largest glaciers in the last month. They expect that part of the Northern hemisphere’s longest floating glacier will continue to disintegrate within the next year.

A massive 11-square-mile (29-square-kilometer) piece of the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland broke away between July 10th and by July 24th. The loss to that glacier is equal to half the size of Manhattan Island. The last major ice loss to Petermann occurred when the glacier lost 33 square miles (86 square kilometers) of floating ice between 2000 and 2001.

Petermann has a floating section of ice 10 miles (16 kilometers) wide and 50 miles (80.4 kilometers) long which covers 500 square miles (1,295 square kilometers).

What worries Jason Box, an associate professor of geography at Ohio State, and his colleagues, graduate students Russell Benson and David Decker, all with the Byrd Polar Research Center, even more about the latest images is what appears to be a massive crack further back from the margin of the Petermann Glacier.

That crack may signal an imminent and much larger breakup.

“If the Petermann glacier breaks up back to the upstream rift, the loss would be as much as 60 square miles (160 square kilometers),” Box said, representing a loss of one-third of the massive ice field.

Meanwhile, the margin of the massive Jakobshavn glacier has retreated inland further than it has at any time in the past 150 years it has been observed. Researchers believe that the glacier has not retreated to where it is now in at least the last 4,000 to 6,000 years.

The Northern branch of the Jakobshavn broke up in the past several weeks and the glacier has lost at least three square miles (10 square kilometers) since the end of the last melt season.

The Jakobshavn Glacier dominates the approximately 130 glaciers flowing out of Greenland’s inland into the sea. It alone is responsible for producing at least one-tenth of the icebergs calving off into the sea from the entire island of Greenland, making it the island’s most productive glacier.

Between 2001 and 2005, a massive breakup of the Jakobshavn glacier erased 36 square miles (94 square kilometers) from the ice field and raised the awareness of worldwide of glacial response to global climate change.

The researchers are using images updated daily from National Aeronautics and Space Administration satellites and from time-lapse photography from cameras monitoring the margin of these and other Greenland glaciers. Additional support for this project came from NASA.

2008-08-22T12:06:00.001+09:00

July 3, 2008: Dear Prime Minister Fukuda: A letter to leader of Japan before the G8 meeting
Dr. James E. Hansen, Columbia University

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080703_DearPrimeMinisterFukuda.pdf

2008-08-22T12:02:00.002+09:00

The Real Deal: Usufruct & the Gorilla
Dr. James Hansen, Director: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 20070816

Fox, Washington Times, and their like have gone bananas over a flaw discovered in the computer program that produces global temperatures at GISS each month. They have even managed to get Congress and NASA Headquarters involved. Now we know what mom meant when she said “don’t make a federal case out of it.” Hey, what is really going on here?

The said computer program is rerun every month as new meteorological station data and new satellite sea surface temperature data are reported. The program produces a global surface temperature field using an analysis scheme documented by Hansen et al. (2001) http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2001/2001_Hansen_etal.pdf The flaw affected temperatures only in the United States (by about 0.15°C) and only in 2000 and later. We corrected the flaw in the program, thanked the fellow who pointed it out, and thought that was the end of it.

[The correction: As explained in the e-mail sent last week, http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_LightUpstairs_70810.pdf one improvement made in our 2001 analysis was to use USHCN (U.S. Historical Climatology Network) station records in the U.S. as adjusted by Tom Karl and NOAA colleagues, who used available descriptive data to correct for effects of station moves, changes in time-of-day of temperature measurements, etc. Our computer program presumed that this (adjusted) USHCN data would also be used in future years. Unfortunately, adjusted USHCN data have not been available in near-real-time, and our program instead picked up the data for these same stations reported in the WMO GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network) data stream. Because the GHCN data do not include the NOAA adjustments, this introduced a discontinuity in temperature anomalies in 2000. This discontinuity can be removed by comparing USHCN and GHCN records just before 2000, and this correction was made to the GISS computer program on 7 August 2007 with a note to that effect made on the GISTEMP web page.]

How big an error did this flaw cause? That is shown by the before and after results in Figure 1. The effect on the global temperature record is invisible. The effect on U.S. average temperature is about 0.15°C beginning in 2000. Does this change have any affect whatsoever on the global warming issue? Certainly not, as discussed below.
What we have here is a case of dogged contrarians who present results in ways intended to deceive the public into believing that the changes have greater significance than reality. They aim to make a mountain out of a mole hill. I believe that these people are not stupid, instead they

Figure 1. Global (a) and U.S. (b) before and after correction of flaw in computer program.

seek to create a brouhaha and muddy the waters in the climate change story. They seem to know exactly what they are doing and believe they can get away with it, because the public does not have the time, inclination, and training to discern what is a significant change with regard to the global warming issue.

The proclamations of the contrarians are a deceit, but their story raises a more important matter, usufruct. It is the most important issue in the entire global warming story, in my opinion. The players in the present U.S. temperature story, we scientists included, are just bit players. The characters in the main drama are big fish, really big fish.

Read the rest here:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20070816_realdeal.pdf

2008-08-22T11:33:00.003+09:00

NASA 2007 GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

Global Temperature Trends: 2007 Summation

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the "El Niño of the century". The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle.

Figure 1 shows 2007 temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 base period mean. The global mean temperature anomaly, 0.57°C (about 1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 mean, continues the strong warming trend of the past thirty years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs)
(Hansen et al. 2007). The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.

Figure 1, above.
(a) Annual surface temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980 mean, based on surface air measurements at meteorological stations and ship and satellite measurements of sea surface temperature. (b) Global map of surface temperature anomalies for 2007.
(Figure also available as large GIF or PDF.)

Arctic Warmth

The map reveals that the greatest warming has been in the Arctic and neighboring high latitude regions. Polar amplification is an expected characteristic of global warming, as the loss of ice and snow engenders a positive feedback via increased absorption of sunlight. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observed record low Arctic sea ice cover in September 2007.

El Niño-La Niña Cycle

Figure 2, at right.
Surface temperature anomalies for July-December 2007.
(Figure also available as large GIF or PDF.)

The cooler than normal equatorial region just to the west of South America is a reflection of the ongoing La Niña phase of a phenomenon dubbed the Southern Oscillation. In the La Niña phase of the El Niño-La Niña cycle the equatorial winds in the Pacific Ocean blow with stronger than average force from the east, driving warm surface waters toward the Western Pacific. This induces upwelling of cold deep water near Peru, which then spreads westward along the equator.

Figure 2, the surface temperature anomaly for July-December, shows that the La Niña equatorial cooling is strong in the second half of the year. The La Niña should thus continue to affect global temperatures into 2008.

Solar Variability

The sun is another source of natural global temperature variability. Figure 3, based on an analysis of satellite measurements by Richard Willson, shows that 2007 is at the minimum of the current 10-11 year solar cycle. Another analysis of the satellite data (not illustrated here) by Judith Lean has the 2007 solar irradiance minimum slightly lower than the two prior minima in the satellite era. The differences between the two analyses are a result primarily of the lack of accurate absolute calibrations and inadequate overlap of measurements by successive satellites.

This cyclic solar variability yields a climate forcing change of about 0.3 W/m² between solar maxima and solar minima. (Although solar irradiance of an area perpendicular to the solar beam is about 1366 W/m², the absorption of solar energy averaged over day and night and the Earth's surface is about 240 W/m².) Several analyses have extracted empirical global temperature variations of amplitude about 0.1°C associated with the 10-11 year solar cycle, a magnitude consistent with climate model simulations, but this signal is difficult to disentangle from other causes of global temperature change, including unforced chaotic fluctuations.

Figure 3, at right.
Solar irradiance from analysis of satellite measurements by Willson and Mordvinov 2003 and subsequent ACRIM updates.
(Figure also available as large GIF or PDF.)

The solar minimum forcing is thus about 0.15 W/m² relative to the mean solar forcing. For comparison, the human-made GHG climate forcing is now increasing at a rate of about 0.3 W/m² per decade (Hansen & Sato 2004). If the sun were to remain "stuck" in its present minimum for several decades, as has been suggested (e.g., Independent story) in analogy to the solar Maunder Minimum of the seventeenth century, that negative forcing would be balanced by a 5-year increase of GHGs. Thus, in the current era of rapidly increasing GHGs, such solar variations cannot have a substantial impact on long-term global warming trends. Furthermore, recent sighting of the first sunspot of reversed polarity (reported Jan. 4 by, e.g., SpaceWeather.com and NOAA) signifies that the ~ 4-year period of increasing solar irradiance is about to get underway.

Summary

The Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle have significant effects on year-to-year global temperature change. Because both of these natural effects were in their cool phases in 2007, the unusual warmth of 2007 is all the more notable. It is apparent that there is no letup in the steep global warming trend of the past 30 years (see 5-year mean curve in Figure 1a).

"Global warming stopped in 1998," has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because the "El Niño of the century" coincided with the calendar year, but there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend.

Global Predictions

The quasi-regularity of some natural climate forcing mechanisms, combined with knowledge of human-made forcings, allows projection of near-term global temperature trends with reasonably high confidence. Prediction for a specific year is a bit hazardous, as evidenced by an incorrect prediction of record global warmth made by the British climate analysis group for 2007. Such speculations are useful, as they draw attention to the mechanisms, and allow testing of understanding. Presumably part of the basis for their prediction was an assumption of a continued warming contribution from the 2006 El Niño. However, evidence of El Niño warmth disappeared very early in 2007.

Solar irradiance will still be on or near its flat-bottomed minimum in 2008. Temperature tendency associated with the solar cycle, because of the Earth's thermal inertia, has its minimum delayed by almost a quarter cycle, i.e., about two years. Thus solar change should not contribute significantly to temperature change in 2008.

La Niña cooling in the second half of 2007 (Figure 2) is about as intense as the regional cooling associated with any La Niña of the past half century, as shown by comparison to Plate 9 in Hansen et al. (Hansen et al. 1999) and updates to Plate 9 on the GISS web site. Effect of the current La Niña on global surface temperature is likely to continue for at least the first several months of 2008. Based on sequences of Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns in Plate 9, a next El Niño in 2009 or 2010 is perhaps the most likely timing. But whatever year it occurs, it is a pretty safe bet that the next El Niño will help carry global temperature to a significantly higher level.

Competing with the short-term solar and La Niña cooling effects is the long-term global warming effect of human-made GHGs. The latter includes the trend toward less Arctic sea ice that markedly increases high latitude Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Although sea ice cover fluctuates from year to year, the large recent loss of thick multi-year ice implies that this warming effect at high latitudes should persist.

Based on these considerations, it is unlikely that 2008 will be a year with truly exceptional global mean temperature. These considerations also suggest that, barring the unlikely event of a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next 2-3 years.

Data Flaw

Finally, we note that a minor data processing error found in the GISS temperature analysis in early 2007 does not affect the present analysis. The data processing flaw was failure to apply NOAA adjustments to United States Historical Climatology Network stations in 2000-2006, as the records for those years were taken from a different data base (Global Historical Climatology Network). This flaw affected only 1.6% of the Earth's surface (contiguous 48 states) and only the several years in the 21st century. As shown in Figure 4 and discussed elsewhere, the effect of this flaw was immeasurable globally (~0.003°C) and small even in its limited area. Contrary to reports in certain portions of the media, the data processing flaw did not alter the ordering of the warmest years on record. Obviously the global ranks were unaffected. In the contiguous 48 states the statistical tie among 1934, 1998 and 2005 as the warmest year(s) was unchanged. In the current analysis, in the flawed analysis, and in the published GISS analysis (Hansen et al. 2001), 1934 is the warmest year in the contiguous states (not globally) but by an amount (magnitude of the order of 0.01°C) that is an order of magnitude smaller than the uncertainty.

Figure 4, above.
Global and U.S. temperature anomalies with and without the data processing flaw.
(Figure also available as large GIF or PDF)

Further Information

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)

Related NASA news releases:
2007,
2006,
2005,
2004.

Past global temperature annual summations:
2005,
2004,
2003,
2002,
2001.

References

Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and Mki. Sato, 1999:

GISS analysis of surface temperature change.
J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.

Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001:

A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change.
J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.

Hansen, J., and Mki. Sato, 2004:

Greenhouse gas growth rates.
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 101, 16109-16114, doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101.

Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, 2007:

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2287-2312.

Willson, R.C., and A.V. Mordvinov, 2003:

Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21-23.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, no. 5, 1199, doi:10.1029/2002GL016038.

2008-08-21T17:20:00.001+09:00

Citi and Helio Micro Utility Announce The Green Energy Community Investment Fund
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), August 14, 2008

Initial Phase of new Fund will Power up to Four Megawatts of Commercial and Public Sector Solar Energy System Installations

New York, NY and Berkeley, CA – Citi Community Capital, a division of Citi, and Helio Micro Utility today announced the creation of the Green Energy Community Investment Fund to initially finance up to four megawatts of solar electricity production this year. Through this new initiative, solar power systems will be installed on qualifying commercial and public sector facilities throughout the U.S., with an emphasis on underserved communities. Helio mU, headquartered in Berkeley, CA, provides solar electricity to commercial, residential and not-for-profit customers with little or no initial capital outlay through long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).

The first of its kind in the clean energy sector, the Green Energy Community Investment Fund™ puts a special focus on commercial, non-profit and public entities in low and moderate income areas. The Fund will follow the same model as the established Helio Green Energy Plan™, enabling qualifying entities to buy the power generated from a solar installation rather than the panels themselves, thus providing upfront savings and smoothing the path to solar adoption.

"Energy is a major concern in the everyday operation of businesses and organizations across America," said Andrew Ditton, Managing Director of Citi Community Capital. "This Fund is an excellent opportunity for us to expand the mission of our community development efforts to bring affordable green energy solutions to facilities primarily in low and moderate income areas. It also supports Citi's 2007 announcement of $50 billion in investment and financing over 10 years to address global climate change. We are pleased to work with the Helio Micro Utility team on this vital environmental and economic initiative."

Helio Micro Utility Chairman, Ian Rogoff, explained "we created Helio Micro Utility in order to introduce innovative renewable energy finance and supply chain offerings to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy solutions. With the Green Energy Community Investment Fund, we have partnered with Citi to combine their environmental and community goals, and global financial strength, with our first-of-their-kind financial products for dramatically accelerated solar power adoption among traditionally under-served markets."

"We are delighted with Citi's support, and especially proud to work with them to expand the use of solar energy to help our planet while also serving local communities," said Mo Rousso, President & CEO of Helio mU. "With budget cuts, rising energy and gasoline prices and economic pressures, it is more crucial than ever for businesses, schools and non profit organizations of all types to receive assistance now. With this support from Citi Community Capital, we are able to offer much needed help to reduce and stabilize energy costs and reduce dependence on brown energy."

In 2007 Citi Community Capital (CCC), formerly Citibank Community Development, provided up to $5 billion for affordable housing and community revitalization projects in locations around the country. The Green Energy Community Investment Fund is part of Citi's U.S. initiative to support business and community improvement with programs that also include environmentally positive objectives.

The Green Energy Community Investment Fund was created to support the installation of solar electricity systems on commercial and public sector buildings. Ideal criteria for participation in this new program include:

Solar projects that can be completed prior to the end of 2008 so that the benefits of the Federal Incentive Tax Credit (ITC) program can be applied to the solar power system installation cost.

Customer sites that are owner occupied or have more than 10 years remaining on the building lease.

Sites that have adequate roof space for a solar electricity system capable of generating at least 50 kW, or approximately 9,000 square feet of space.

Sites that have unobstructed sun exposure year round.

Sites that are paying over $2,000 per month in electricity bills.

Sites in California, New Jersey, or other states with existing state-level solar incentive programs

Tom Millhoff, Vice President of Business Development for Helio mU will lead the qualification process of facilities for the fund. "We will move quickly to evaluate building sites and install solar power systems this year. We encourage interested customers to contact us, particularly for projects that can be completed by the end of this year. In addition to end customers, solar power integration firms who have non-residential projects which might qualify for support from the Green Energy Community Investment Fund™ should contact us immediately," said Mr. Millhoff.

# # #

Citi Community Capital
The community development division of Citi was created to fulfill the diverse community development lending and investment activity in one distinct business unit. The business, now called Citi Community Capital (CCC), was launched in 2000. In 2007, CCC merged with the Affordable Housing unit of the Municipal Securities Division which made available an even wider array of financial products that can be structured to fit our clients' objectives.

CCC helps community development financial institutions, real estate developers, national intermediaries and non-profit organizations achieve their goals through a broad, integrated platform of debt and equity offerings. Within CCC is a dedicated investment team that specializes in renewable energy, New Markets, and other community development oriented investing. For more information, please visit www.citi.com/citigroup/citizen/community or contact Danielle Romero-Apsilos at 212-816-2264.

Citi
Citi, the leading global financial services company, has some 200 million customer accounts and does business in more than 100 countries, providing consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a broad range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, and wealth management. Citi's major brand names include Citibank, CitiFinancial, Primerica, Citi Smith Barney and Banamex. Additional information may be found at www.citigroup.com or www.citi.com.

Helio Micro Utility (Helio mU)
Helio mU is a green power pioneer, selling solar energy without the upfront cost of panels. The Company provides solar electricity to commercial, residential and not-for-profit customers with little or no initial capital outlay through its Green Energy Plan TM. The Helio Green Energy Plan guarantees customers receive cost-effective and predictable energy pricing and maximum system performance over the life of the agreement. Helio mU is headquartered in Berkeley, CA. For more information please visit: www.HeliomU.com and www.BuyPowerNotPanels.com or call toll free at 1.866.862.2806.

2008-08-13T09:44:00.003+09:00

Southern Route Through Northwest Passage Opens
earthobservatory.nasa.gov, August 7, 2008

In the summer of 2007, as Arctic sea ice reached a record low, the Northwest Passage opened between Baffin Bay and McClure Strait (also known as M’Clure Strait). Passing through Parry Channel, this opening would be the route through the Arctic most conducive to large-scale shipping. As of early August 2008, Arctic sea ice was not expected to set a new melt record, although its extent was well below the long-term average. Whether the Northwest Passage would open as far north as it did the previous year remained in question, but the sea ice in a more southerly route—one taken by Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen in the early twentieth century—had begun to melt.

This image shows the Arctic as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite on August 5, 2007. In this image, blue indicates open water, white indicates high sea ice concentration, and turquoise indicates loosely packed sea ice. The black circle at the North Pole indicates no data as the satellite does not make observations directly over the pole. Although ice blocks areas that opened in 2007, Peel Sound, Victoria Strait, Coronation Gulf, and Amundsen Gulf are largely ice-free.

Amundsen successfully navigated a southern route through the Northwest Passage between 1903 and 1906, becoming the first explorer to make such an achievement. In the decades that followed, southern portions of the Northwest Passage occasionally opened in late summer, but its longer route, narrower straits, and shallower depths make it a less it a less inviting shipping lane. Although the more favorable northern route was not open at the time this image was acquired, the possibility remained that the route would be free of ice before the summer melt season drew to a close in September.

References
Earth Observatory. (2007, August 28). Northwest Passage Nearly Open. Accessed August 7, 2008.
Ha, T.T. (2008, August 6). Frozen Northwest Passage expected to open up. Globeandmail.com. Accessed August 7, 2008.
National Snow and Ice Data Center. (2008, May 14). State of the Cryosphere: Sea Ice. Accessed August 7, 2008.
National Snow and Ice Data Center. (2008, August 1). Sea Ice News and Analysis. Accessed August 7, 2008.
University of Bremen. (2008, August 7). Northwest Passage. Accessed August 7, 2008.
Wikipedia. (2008, July 22). Northwest Passage. Accessed August 7, 2008.

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data obtained courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Caption by Michon Scott, based on image interpretation by Ted Scambos and Mark Serreze, NSIDC.

2008-08-08T17:32:00.003+09:00

Giant chunks break off Canadian ice shelf
MSNBC News Services, July 29, 2008

OTTAWA - Giant sheets of ice totaling almost eight square miles broke off an ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic last week and more could follow later this year, scientists said on Tuesday.

This satellite image shows a large, rectangular chunk of ice at center that broke away from the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf. Other pieces also broke away from the shelf.

In a development consistent with climate change theories, the enormous icy plain broke free sometime last week and began slowly drifting into the Arctic Ocean. The piece had been a part of the shelf for 3,000 years.

Temperatures in large parts of the Arctic have risen far faster than the global average in recent decades.

See MSNBC for the full story.

2008-08-02T12:24:00.000+09:00

'Major Discovery' Primed To Unleash Solar Revolution: Scientists Mimic Essence Of Plants' Energy Storage System

ScienceDaily (Aug. 1, 2008) — In a revolutionary leap that could transform solar power from a marginal, boutique alternative into a mainstream energy source, MIT researchers have overcome a major barrier to large-scale solar power: storing energy for use when the sun doesn't shine.

Until now, solar power has been a daytime-only energy source, because storing extra solar energy for later use is prohibitively expensive and grossly inefficient. With today's announcement, MIT researchers have hit upon a simple, inexpensive, highly efficient process for storing solar energy.

Requiring nothing but abundant, non-toxic natural materials, this discovery could unlock the most potent, carbon-free energy source of all: the sun. "This is the nirvana of what we've been talking about for years," said MIT's Daniel Nocera, the Henry Dreyfus Professor of Energy at MIT and senior author of a paper describing the work in the July 31 issue of Science. "Solar power has always been a limited, far-off solution. Now we can seriously think about solar power as unlimited and soon."

Inspired by the photosynthesis performed by plants, Nocera and Matthew Kanan, a postdoctoral fellow in Nocera's lab, have developed an unprecedented process that will allow the sun's energy to be used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen gases. Later, the oxygen and hydrogen may be recombined inside a fuel cell, creating carbon-free electricity to power your house or your electric car, day or night.

The key component in Nocera and Kanan's new process is a new catalyst that produces oxygen gas from water; another catalyst produces valuable hydrogen gas. The new catalyst consists of cobalt metal, phosphate and an electrode, placed in water. When electricity — whether from a photovoltaic cell, a wind turbine or any other source — runs through the electrode, the cobalt and phosphate form a thin film on the electrode, and oxygen gas is produced.

Combined with another catalyst, such as platinum, that can produce hydrogen gas from water, the system can duplicate the water splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis.

The new catalyst works at room temperature, in neutral pH water, and it's easy to set up, Nocera said. "That's why I know this is going to work. It's so easy to implement," he said.

Giant leap for clean energy

Sunlight has the greatest potential of any power source to solve the world's energy problems, said Nocera. In one hour, enough sunlight strikes the Earth to provide the entire planet's energy needs for one year.

James Barber, a leader in the study of photosynthesis who was not involved in this research, called the discovery by Nocera and Kanan a "giant leap" toward generating clean, carbon-free energy on a massive scale.

"This is a major discovery with enormous implications for the future prosperity of humankind," said Barber, the Ernst Chain Professor of Biochemistry at Imperial College London. "The importance of their discovery cannot be overstated since it opens up the door for developing new technologies for energy production thus reducing our dependence for fossil fuels and addressing the global climate change problem."

Just the beginning

Currently available electrolyzers, which split water with electricity and are often used industrially, are not suited for artificial photosynthesis because they are very expensive and require a highly basic (non-benign) environment that has little to do with the conditions under which photosynthesis operates.

More engineering work needs to be done to integrate the new scientific discovery into existing photovoltaic systems, but Nocera said he is confident that such systems will become a reality.

"This is just the beginning," said Nocera, principal investigator for the Solar Revolution Project funded by the Chesonis Family Foundation and co-Director of the Eni-MIT Solar Frontiers Center. "The scientific community is really going to run with this."

Nocera hopes that within 10 years, homeowners will be able to power their homes in daylight through photovoltaic cells, while using excess solar energy to produce hydrogen and oxygen to power their own household fuel cell. Electricity-by-wire from a central source could be a thing of the past.

This project was funded by the National Science Foundation and by the Chesonis Family Foundation, which gave MIT $10 million this spring to launch the Solar Revolution Project, with a goal to make the large scale deployment of solar energy within 10 years.

2008-08-01T19:56:00.000+09:00

How to turn water into rocket fuel – scientists unlock power of the sun
independent.co.uk, 1 August 2008

Scientists have devised a cheap and simple method of turning water into rocket fuel using solar power in a development that could generate a new source of green energy for the home and workplace.

The researchers used electricity from solar panels to split water into oxygen and hydrogen – the constituents of rocket fuel – with a technology that scientists believe could solve many of the problems that have hampered the development of solar energy.

With the help of a simple and yet highly efficient "chemistry set" made out of commonly available materials, the scientists have found a way of storing solar energy as a chemical fuel that can be used to power pollution-free electricity generators known as hydrogen fuel cells.

Until now the concept has stagnated because it has been too costly and difficult to use solar-generated electricity to split water into oxygen and hydrogen in a domestic setting, but the new method relies on the discovery of a catalyst that speeds up the conversion of water into high-energy fuel.

Daniel Nocera of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston, said the discovery could remove one of the major obstacles that has prevented solar power from being taken up widely as a viable alternative to fossil fuels such as oil and gas.

"The discovery has enormous implications for the large-scale deployment of solar since it puts us on the doorstep of a cheap and easily manufactured storage mechanism. The ease of implementation means that this discovery will have legs," Dr Nocera said.

Being able to use solar panels to build up a store of chemical energy that is easily transported would revolutionise the way solar energy can be used. It not only means that it could power a building at night, it also means it could be carried around to power electric vehicles running on hydrogen fuel cells.

The secret of the breakthrough, published in the journal Science, lies in the type of electrodes used to generate oxygen and hydrogen when they are inserted into water. The scientists made them from a cobalt-phosphate mixture which acted as a catalyst that speeds up the splitting of water molecules into their components – oxygen and hydrogen.

"The simplicity of this process is amazing. Using common and affordable elements, and a glass of water, these chemists may have given us a future way to efficiently obtain oxygen by splitting water," said Luis Echegoyen, director of the chemical division of the US National Science Foundation, which funded the work.

Dr Nocera said that sunlight has the greatest potential of any power source to solve the world's energy problems given that in one hour enough energy from the Sun strikes the Earth to provide the entire planet's energy needs for a year.

The technique of using sunlight to split water lies at the basis of photosynthesis, the way plants convert the energy of sunlight into a chemical store that can be used for growth, but emulating the biological process has not been easy. Existing methods of splitting water using electrolysis are used in industry but are not suited for artificial photosynthesis as they are expensive and cumbersome to use on the sort of small scales needed for homes and offices.

Within a decade, Dr Nocera predicts that people will be powering their homes in the daytime from photovoltaic solar panels, and using the spare energy to generate that hydrogen that will power fuel cells at night with little or no pollution. "This is just the beginning. The scientific community is really going to run with this," Dr Nocera said.

How the new electrodes work

* Sunlight hits the photovoltaic cells of a solar panel and is converted into electricity. Spare capacity is sent to electrodes placed in a tank of water.

* As electricity runs through each electrode, a chemical catalyst made of a cobalt-phosphate mixture lining their surfaces speeds up the rate at which water is split into oxygen and hydrogen.

* The two gases bubble up to the surface and are collected separately and stored in safety canisters. The catalyst covering the electrodes renews itself spontaneously.

* Hydrogen is used as a fuel to drive a generator known as a hydrogen fuel cell, which can power a vehicle or the home at night. Oxygen can be combined with hydrogen to produce energy-rich fuel.

* Scientists are trying to work out exactly how the catalyst works and hope to refine the technique further. They plan to experiment with other catalysts, such as platinum, which is know to speed up the rate at which hydrogen can be made when electrodes are placed in water.

* The system should also be able to work with electricity generated by wind turbines, which also suffer the problem of variable power caused by differences in wind speed. The energy of the wind can be stored for when it is calm.

2008-07-28T14:06:00.003+09:00

IDEA: Design Award Winners, 2008
businessweek.com, July 17, 2008

Solar Roofing System (SRS)

Silver
Home Living - Concepts
Client: SRS Energy (U.S.)
Design: Bresslergroup (U.S.)

Until now, cost, appearance and installation complexity raised high barriers to mass consumer acceptance of photovoltaic (PV), solar electricity-generating systems. The Solar Roofing System (SRS) addresses these problems with a patented package for PV so that electricity is generated through a long-lasting roofing system that costs, looks and installs like a typical high quality blue-glazed ceramic tile roof. In addition to reducing dependence on fossil fuel, going solar is an energy cost-saving decision: Homeowners can generate and resell to the utility up to 80% of their electricity needs.

2008-07-27T12:47:00.001+09:00

Cow Power Could Generate Electricity For Millions
ScienceDaily (July 25, 2008)

Converting livestock manure into a domestic renewable fuel source could generate enough electricity to meet up to three per cent of North America's entire consumption needs and lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), according to new research.

The research has implications for all countries with livestock as it is the first attempt to outline a procedure for quantifying the national amount of renewable energy that herds of cattle and other livestock can generate and the concomitant GHG emission reductions.

Livestock manure, left to decompose naturally, emits two particularly potent GHGs -- nitrous oxide and methane. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, nitrous oxide warms the atmosphere 310 times more than carbon dioxide, methane does so 21 times more.

The journal paper creates two hypothetical scenarios and quantifies them to compare energy savings and GHG reducing benefits. The first is 'business as usual' with coal burnt for energy and with manure left to decompose naturally. The second is one wherein manure is anaerobically-digested to create biogas and then burnt to offset coal.

Through anaerobic digestion, similar to the process by which you create compost, manure can be turned into energy-rich biogas, which standard microturbines can use to produce electricity. The hundreds of millions of livestock inhabiting the US could produce approximately 100 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, enough to power millions of homes and offices.

And, as manure left to decompose naturally has a very damaging effect on the environment, this new waste management system has a net potential GHG emissions reduction of 99 million metric tonnes, wiping out approximately four per cent of the country's GHG emissions from electricity production.

The burning of biogas would lead to the emission of some CO2 but the output from biogas-burning plants would be less than that from, for example, coal.

Authors of the paper, Dr. Michael E. Webber and Amanda D Cuellar from the University of Texas at Austin, write, "In light of the criticism that has been levelled against biofuels, biogas production from manure has the less-controversial benefit of reusing an existing waste source and has the potential to improve the environment.

"Nonetheless, the logistics of widespread biogas production, including feedstock and digestates transportation, must be determined at the local level to produce the most environmentally advantageous, economical, and energy efficient system."

2008-07-26T12:41:00.001+09:00

Costs Of Climate Change, State-by-state: Billions, Says New Report
sciencedaily.com, July 25, 2008

Climate change will carry a price tag of billions of dollars for a number of U.S. states, says a new series of reports from the University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER). The researchers conclude that the costs have already begun to accrue and are likely to endure.

Combining existing data with new analysis, the eight studies project the long term economic impact of climate change on Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey and Ohio. Studies on additional states are in the works.

"We don't have a crystal ball and can't predict specific bottom lines, but the trend is very clear for these eight states and the nation as a whole: climate change will cost billions in the long run and the bottom line will be red," says Matthias Ruth, who coordinated the research and directs the Center for Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland. "Inaction or delayed action will make the ink run redder."

Last year, Ruth conducted a similar nationwide analysis and concluded that the total economic cost of climate change in the United States will be major and affect all regions, though the cost remains uncounted, unplanned for and largely hidden in public debate.

"These new state snapshots can help underscore the extent of damage already experienced in various parts of the country," Ruth adds. "We hope the data and the trends can help state and local policy-makers plan for additional changes ahead."

The eight new studies are being released July 23 at the legislative summit of the National Conference of State Legislators (NCSL) convening in New Orleans. The NCSL collaborated with CIER to develop summaries for the thousands of officials participating in the convention.

State Summaries

Note: The economic impacts are based on climate changes already in motion. Unabated climate change would likely increase these economic effects.

Colorado: More than $1 billion in losses due to impacts on tourism, forestry, water resources and human health from a predicted drier, warmer climate.

Georgia: Multi-million dollar losses from predicted higher seas along Georgia's coast.

Kansas: Losses exceeding $1 billion from impact on agriculture of predicted warmer temperatures and reduced water supply in much of the state.

Illinois: Billions of dollars in losses from impact on shipping, trade and water resources. Warmer temperatures and lower water levels predicted for much of the state.

Michigan: Billions of dollars in losses from damage to the state's shipping and water resources. Warmer temperatures and lower water levels predicted for much of the state.

Nevada: Billions of dollars in losses from a much drier climate and pressure on scarce water resources. Water limitations could affect tourism, real estate, development and human health. Many western states may confront similar challenges.

New Jersey: Billions of dollars in losses from higher sea levels and the impact on tourism, transportation, real estate and human health.

Ohio: Billions of dollars in losses from warmer temperatures and lower water levels and the resulting impact on shipping and water supplies.

The complete reports (8) are available online: http://cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/

Lessons for states

The report offers five "lessons" derived from the researchers' analysis:

1. "There are already considerable costs to society associated with infrastructures, agricultural and silvicultural practices, land use choices, transportation and consumptive behaviors that are not in synch with past and current climatic conditions. These costs are likely to increase as climate change accelerates over the century to come."
2. "The effects of climate change should not be considered in isolation. Every state's economy is linked to the economies of surrounding states as well as to the national and global economy. While the economic costs of climate change are predicted to vary significantly from state to state, the negative impacts that regional, national and global markets may experience are likely to affect all states and many sectors."
3. "While some of the benefits from climate change may accrue to individual farms or businesses, the cost of dealing with adverse climate impacts are typically borne by society as a whole. These costs to society will not be uniformly distributed but felt most among small businesses and farms, the elderly and socially marginalized groups."
4. "The costs of inaction are persistent and lasting. Benefits from climate change may be brief and fleeting - for example, climate does not stop changing once a farm benefited from temporarily improved growing conditions. In contrast, costs of inaction are likely to stay and to increase."
5. "Climate models and impact assessments are becoming increasingly refined...Yet, little consistency exists among studies to enable 'summing up' impacts and cost figures across sectors and regions to arrive at a comprehensive, state-wide result." More precise modeling will require further research.

"If there's a single bottom line in all of this research, it's that delaying action on climate change carries a significant cost," says Ruth. "State, local and national leaders will save money in the long-run by adopting a proactive approach."

The researchers selected the eight states to be analyzed based on the availability of data from prior studies, while avoiding replication of research on states already in the limelight (e.g., California). The researchers also made their selections to provide geographical diversity.

Support for this research was provided by the Environmental Defense Fund, which tackles the most serious environmental problems with strong science, innovative markets, corporate partnerships and effective laws and policy.

2008-07-25T11:51:00.001+09:00

http://www.postcarbon.org/10-steps-to-renewable-power
Post Carbon Institute, July 23, 2008

10 Steps in 10 Years to 100 Percent Renewable Power

Below is a conceptual plan for achieving the goal of 100% renewable energy by 2018. We will be updating this document with specific recommendations and additional resources in the near future.
1. Reduce 6. Reinvest
2. Share 7. Relocalize
3. Diversify 8. Reengineer
4. Distribute 9. Reskill
5. Store 10. Remobilize

1. Reduce consumption and reduce waste—not just of fossil fuels but of energy overall and of raw materials, almost all of which require energy to exploit and transport. Reducing consumption is vital in making the goal of 100% renewable electricity achievable, both to reduce the amount of renewable power we need to generate and because it will greatly reduce the cost of installing it. Such reduction will need to be planned in order to make sure that new jobs and opportunities demanded by renewable energy are brought on even as jobs dependent on cheap, abundant energy are removed by depletion. Americans need to become energy smart and self-reliant again—these were once defining aspects of the American character, and need to be revived.

2. Share—sharing things we do not use all the time can dramatically reduce consumption. For instance, we can reduce the energy we use for transportation by sharing both trips and vehicles. Such savings are already being achieved by ride-sharing and car-pooling, and more recently by membership-based car-sharing services.

Public transportation, especially when widespread, frequent, cheap and regularly scheduled—and thus widely used—is also a highly efficient form of sharing vehicles. It has the further great advantage being much easier to power with electricity.

Sharing is already an integral part of our energy use. The electricity grid itself is a system of sharing and balancing electricity production and load, but it’s outdated and excessively wasteful. We will need to re-engineer both the physical structure of the grid to make it easier to add all kinds of distributed power sources, and we will need to make the actual wires open to the public so that local power produced by businesses and homes can be added with economic advantage to both the user and the nation.

In general, if we share more, we will use less energy while building a self-sufficient and efficient society and economy.

3. Diversify sources of electricity, both in terms of generator size and location, concentrating on whatever renewable resources are locally available, such as wind, sun, biomass, geothermal, tides, and waves. There will be no single “silver bullet” renewable energy technology that works everywhere all the time; therefore harnessing efficient, practical, and abundant local sources will be vital. One of the best options for generation in many parts of the US is solar photovoltaic panels (PV). The solar industry in the US has suffered from a very unstable tax credit environment, and currently PV panel production in the US is minuscule by comparison with that of Europe and the Far East. The negative economic climate for US PV production must be addressed urgently by government.

4. Distribute electricity production so that households, businesses, and communities produce more of their own power. This reduces transmission losses, is good for the local economy, and builds community resilience against shortfalls and price spikes of any one energy resource. Achieving this distribution will require many creative and large-scale means of financing, often involving government help. It will also require fast-track permitting, changes in legislation and the power grid to allow easy grid access, as well as changes in the structuring of many existing utilities.

5. Store electricity better. We need to develop much better and more abundant electricity storage technology because most of the best renewable energy sources are intermittent (even if in quite predictable patterns). There are many different ways of storing electricity, but none of them is cheap or easy, and most of them are very expensive and in immediate need of much more research and development. In particular, battery technology, especially at large scale, is still very far from perfected, and America lags far behind the Far East in research, development, and production. This situation needs to change urgently.

6. Reinvest: the project of rebuilding America’s electricity infrastructure will require enormous public and private investment. The good news is that infrastructure investments pay tangible dividends for entire communities and for many generations—unlike speculative investments that only create temporary paper wealth for a few. Investing in a restructured power grid will require positive and active government involvement.

The federal and state governments can aggressively push feed-in tariff and "renewable portfolio standards" to stabilize and improve the fiscal environment for renewable energy. State and municipal governments can issue bonds for the building and buying of renewable energy generation, so that people can borrow against them for low interest loans. Bonds could even be extended beyond capital projects to support energy conserving and generating operations.

In 2007 the federal government created the Solar America Cities program, a partnership of cities and counties, government departments, non-profit institutions, and private companies, designed to advance the installation of solar power generation across America. Solar Sonoma County, a joint effort of local government, private business, and nonprofits (of which we are a member), is a leading example of the kind of innovative initiatives which make it much easier for all kinds of investment money to be directed into solar and energy efficiency.

Community Choice Aggregation and Power Purchase Agreements can also make local renewable power cheaper and more feasible, and thus easier to invest in.

7. Relocalize: rebuilding the local production and manufacturing economy while shortening supply chains will reduce transportation energy and carbon emissions, while creating jobs and supporting local economies. Relocalizing is a far-reaching and powerful economic idea that will come to the fore as energy constraints cause many to re-think the far-flung, shipping-intensive global economy. Relocalizing will cultivate community resilience and self-reliance at home, and a nation independent of fossil fuels and able to maximize generation of local renewable power.

8. Reengineer the infrastructure of America, starting with the power grid. Even without the need to leave fossil fuels behind, America’s electricity grid is in urgent need of overhaul. It needs to be repaired, strengthened, and in many cases dramatically re-wired to allow areas with large wind and solar resources to feed the demand centers. Though this will still entail long-distance transmission, it is far better to have large wind and solar farms than nuclear or coal plants, neither of which is clean or renewable. The new grid will also need to make it easy to add and stabilize small and medium-sized distributed generation sources.

The retrofitting of American buildings is another vitally necessary form of re-engineering. Most of the built environment in the US was designed in an era of cheap, abundant energy. US buildings account for nearly half of all energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. America urgently needs homes and businesses that remain warm in winter and cool summer with the minimum of energy consumption, with the aim of achieving zero-energy buildings wherever possible. This will reduce demand for both electricity and all fossil fuels.

9. Reskill America’s workforce for the millions of green-collar jobs that will be created by our historic transition to renewable energy—quality jobs in projects that include re-engineering the grid, installing millions of solar panels and wind turbines, retrofitting tens of millions of buildings, and rebuilding America’s fractured manufacturing sector and industrial supply chain.

These skills will be needed in every community. Reskilling will require coordination between government, education, business, and industry in an unprecedented shift toward reduced job specialization and greater ability to develop local supply chains using more local resources. This will include a return to local manufacturing of many vital lighter goods, and regional manufacturing of heavier goods and industrial feedstocks, such as steel. This historic change has already begun in some areas.

10. Remobilize: our transportation system needs to run on renewable electricity and human power. This means developing and deploying electric automobiles with related renewable generation and charging infrastructures, reviving and re-investing in electric trolley buses, streetcars, and electric rail - both light and heavy. We also need to revive and re-invest in pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, and bring in light neighborhood electric vehicles (NEVs) for both personal and shared use. These measures all have the aim of replacing the petroleum-powered car as quickly as possible in order to produce a transport system designed for the 21st century.

This will require nothing short of a fossil-free transportation revolution, including an electric rail revolution. Cities redesigned for human muscles and electric motors will thrive long after we have run out of fossil fuels.

2008-07-24T16:45:00.002+09:00

Solar power from Saharan sun could provide Europe's electricity, says EU
The Guardian, Wednesday July 23, 2008

A tiny rectangle superimposed on the vast expanse of the Sahara captures the seductive appeal of the audacious plan to cut Europe's carbon emissions by harnessing the fierce power of the desert sun.

A concentrating solar power (CSP) plant in Spain that uses panels to reflect light on to a central tower to produce electricity. Similar plants are proposed for north Africa. Photograph: AP

Dwarfed by any of the north African nations, it represents an area slightly smaller than Wales but scientists claimed yesterday it could one day generate enough solar energy to supply all of Europe with clean electricity.

Speaking at the Euroscience Open Forum in Barcelona, Arnulf Jaeger-Walden of the European commission's Institute for Energy, said it would require the capture of just 0.3% of the light falling on the Sahara and Middle East deserts to meet all of Europe's energy needs.

The scientists are calling for the creation of a series of huge solar farms - producing electricity either through photovoltaic cells, or by concentrating the sun's heat to boil water and drive turbines - as part of a plan to share Europe's renewable energy resources across the continent.

A new supergrid, transmitting electricity along high voltage direct current cables would allow countries such as the UK and Denmark ultimately to export wind energy at times of surplus supply, as well as import from other green sources such as geothermal power in Iceland.

Energy losses on DC lines are far lower than on the traditional AC ones, which make transmission of energy over long distances uneconomic.

The grid proposal, which has won political support from both Nicholas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, answers the perennial criticism that renewable power will never be economic because the weather is not sufficiently predictable. Its supporters argue that even if the wind is not blowing hard enough in the North Sea, it will be blowing somewhere else in Europe, or the sun will be shining on a solar farm somewhere.

Scientists argue that harnessing the Sahara would be particularly effective because the sunlight in this area is more intense: solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in northern Africa could generate up to three times the electricity compared with similar panels in northern Europe.

Much of the cost would come in developing the public grid networks of connecting countries in the southern Mediterranean, which do not currently have the spare capacity to carry the electricity that the north African solar farms could generate. Even if high voltage cables between North Africa and Italy would be built or the existing cable between Morocco and Spain would be used, the infrastructure of the transfer countries such as Italy and Spain or Greece or Turkey also needs a major re-structuring, according to Jaeger-Walden.

Southern Mediterranean countries including Portugal and Spain have already invested heavily in solar energy and Algeria has begun work on a vast combined solar and natural gas plant which will begin producing energy in 2010. Algeria aims to export 6,000 megawatts of solar-generated power to Europe by 2020.

Scientists working on the project admit that it would take many years and huge investment to generate enough solar energy from north Africa to power Europe but envisage that by 2050 it could produce 100 GW, more than the combined electricity output from all sources in the UK, with an investment of around €450bn.

Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK's chief scientist, welcomed the proposals: "Assuming it's cost-effective, a largescale renewable energy grid is just the kind of innovation we need if we're going to beat climate change."

Jaeger-Walden also believes that scaling up solar PV by having large solar farms could help bring its cost down for consumers. "The biggest PV system at the moment is installed in Leipzig and the price of the installation is €3.25 per watt," he said. "If we could realise that in the Mediterranean, for example in southern Italy, this would correspond to electricity prices in the range of 15 cents per kWh, something below what the average consumer is paying."

The vision for the renewable energy grid comes as the commission's joint research centre (JRC) published its strategic energy technology plan, highlighting solar PV as one of eight technologies that need to be championed for the short- to medium-term future.

"It recognises something extraordinary - if we don't put together resources and findings across Europe and we let go the several sectors of energy, we will never reach these targets," said Giovanni de Santi, director of the JRC, also speaking in Barcelona.

The JRC plan includes fuel cells and hydrogen, clean coal, second generation biofuels, nuclear fusion, wind, nuclear fission and smart grids. De Santi said it was designed to help Europe to meet its commitments to reduce overall energy consumption by 20% by 2020, while reducing CO² emissions by 20% in the same time and increasing to 20% the proportion of energy generated from renewable sources.

2008-07-23T11:53:00.001+09:00

Al Gore: A Generational Challenge to Repower America

Ladies and gentlemen:

There are times in the history of our nation when our very way of life depends upon dispelling illusions and awakening to the challenge of a present danger. In such moments, we are called upon to move quickly and boldly to shake off complacency, throw aside old habits and rise, clear-eyed and alert, to the necessity of big changes. Those who, for whatever reason, refuse to do their part must either be persuaded to join the effort or asked to step aside. This is such a moment. The survival of the United States of America as we know it is at risk. And even more - if more should be required - the future of human civilization is at stake.

I don't remember a time in our country when so many things seemed to be going so wrong simultaneously. Our economy is in terrible shape and getting worse, gasoline prices are increasing dramatically, and so are electricity rates. Jobs are being outsourced. Home mortgages are in trouble. Banks, automobile companies and other institutions we depend upon are under growing pressure. Distinguished senior business leaders are telling us that this is just the beginning unless we find the courage to make some major changes quickly.

The climate crisis, in particular, is getting a lot worse - much more quickly than predicted. Scientists with access to data from Navy submarines traversing underneath the North polar ice cap have warned that there is now a 75 percent chance that within five years the entire ice cap will completely disappear during the summer months. This will further increase the melting pressure on Greenland. According to experts, the Jakobshavn glacier, one of Greenland's largest, is moving at a faster rate than ever before, losing 20 million tons of ice every day, equivalent to the amount of water used every year by the residents of New York City.

Two major studies from military intelligence experts have warned our leaders about the dangerous national security implications of the climate crisis, including the possibility of hundreds of millions of climate refugees destabilizing nations around the world.

Just two days ago, 27 senior statesmen and retired military leaders warned of the national security threat from an "energy tsunami" that would be triggered by a loss of our access to foreign oil. Meanwhile, the war in Iraq continues, and now the war in Afghanistan appears to be getting worse.

And by the way, our weather sure is getting strange, isn't it? There seem to be more tornadoes than in living memory, longer droughts, bigger downpours and record floods. Unprecedented fires are burning in California and elsewhere in the American West. Higher temperatures lead to drier vegetation that makes kindling for mega-fires of the kind that have been raging in Canada, Greece, Russia, China, South America, Australia and Africa. Scientists in the Department of Geophysics and Planetary Science at Tel Aviv University tell us that for every one degree increase in temperature, lightning strikes will go up another 10 percent. And it is lightning, after all, that is principally responsible for igniting the conflagration in California today.

Like a lot of people, it seems to me that all these problems are bigger than any of the solutions that have thus far been proposed for them, and that's been worrying me.

I'm convinced that one reason we've seemed paralyzed in the face of these crises is our tendency to offer old solutions to each crisis separately - without taking the others into account. And these outdated proposals have not only been ineffective - they almost always make the other crises even worse.

Yet when we look at all three of these seemingly intractable challenges at the same time, we can see the common thread running through them, deeply ironic in its simplicity: our dangerous over-reliance on carbon-based fuels is at the core of all three of these challenges - the economic, environmental and national security crises.

We're borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the planet. Every bit of that's got to change.

But if we grab hold of that common thread and pull it hard, all of these complex problems begin to unravel and we will find that we're holding the answer to all of them right in our hand.
The answer is to end our reliance on carbon-based fuels.

In my search for genuinely effective answers to the climate crisis, I have held a series of "solutions summits" with engineers, scientists, and CEOs. In those discussions, one thing has become abundantly clear: when you connect the dots, it turns out that the real solutions to the climate crisis are the very same measures needed to renew our economy and escape the trap of ever-rising energy prices. Moreover, they are also the very same solutions we need to guarantee our national security without having to go to war in the Persian Gulf.

What if we could use fuels that are not expensive, don't cause pollution and are abundantly available right here at home?

We have such fuels. Scientists have confirmed that enough solar energy falls on the surface of the earth every 40 minutes to meet 100 percent of the entire world's energy needs for a full year. Tapping just a small portion of this solar energy could provide all of the electricity America uses.

And enough wind power blows through the Midwest corridor every day to also meet 100 percent of US electricity demand. Geothermal energy, similarly, is capable of providing enormous supplies of electricity for America.

The quickest, cheapest and best way to start using all this renewable energy is in the production of electricity. In fact, we can start right now using solar power, wind power and geothermal power to make electricity for our homes and businesses.

But to make this exciting potential a reality, and truly solve our nation's problems, we need a new start.

That's why I'm proposing today a strategic initiative designed to free us from the crises that are holding us down and to regain control of our own destiny. It's not the only thing we need to do. But this strategic challenge is the lynchpin of a bold new strategy needed to re-power America.

Today I challenge our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years.

This goal is achievable, affordable and transformative. It represents a challenge to all Americans - in every walk of life: to our political leaders, entrepreneurs, innovators, engineers, and to every citizen.

A few years ago, it would not have been possible to issue such a challenge. But here's what's changed: the sharp cost reductions now beginning to take place in solar, wind, and geothermal power - coupled with the recent dramatic price increases for oil and coal - have radically changed the economics of energy.

When I first went to Congress 32 years ago, I listened to experts testify that if oil ever got to $35 a barrel, then renewable sources of energy would become competitive. Well, today, the price of oil is over $135 per barrel. And sure enough, billions of dollars of new investment are flowing into the development of concentrated solar thermal, photovoltaics, windmills, geothermal plants, and a variety of ingenious new ways to improve our efficiency and conserve presently wasted energy.

And as the demand for renewable energy grows, the costs will continue to fall. Let me give you one revealing example: the price of the specialized silicon used to make solar cells was recently as high as $300 per kilogram. But the newest contracts have prices as low as $50 a kilogram.

You know, the same thing happened with computer chips - also made out of silicon. The price paid for the same performance came down by 50 percent every 18 months - year after year, and that's what's happened for 40 years in a row.

To those who argue that we do not yet have the technology to accomplish these results with renewable energy: I ask them to come with me to meet the entrepreneurs who will drive this revolution. I've seen what they are doing and I have no doubt that we can meet this challenge.

To those who say the costs are still too high: I ask them to consider whether the costs of oil and coal will ever stop increasing if we keep relying on quickly depleting energy sources to feed a rapidly growing demand all around the world. When demand for oil and coal increases, their price goes up. When demand for solar cells increases, the price often comes down.

When we send money to foreign countries to buy nearly 70 percent of the oil we use every day, they build new skyscrapers and we lose jobs. When we spend that money building solar arrays and windmills, we build competitive industries and gain jobs here at home.

Of course there are those who will tell us this can't be done. Some of the voices we hear are the defenders of the status quo - the ones with a vested interest in perpetuating the current system, no matter how high a price the rest of us will have to pay. But even those who reap the profits of the carbon age have to recognize the inevitability of its demise. As one OPEC oil minister observed, "The Stone Age didn't end because of a shortage of stones."

To those who say 10 years is not enough time, I respectfully ask them to consider what the world's scientists are telling us about the risks we face if we don't act in 10 years. The leading experts predict that we have less than 10 years to make dramatic changes in our global warming pollution lest we lose our ability to ever recover from this environmental crisis. When the use of oil and coal goes up, pollution goes up. When the use of solar, wind and geothermal increases, pollution comes down.

To those who say the challenge is not politically viable: I suggest they go before the American people and try to defend the status quo. Then bear witness to the people's appetite for change.
I for one do not believe our country can withstand 10 more years of the status quo. Our families cannot stand 10 more years of gas price increases. Our workers cannot stand 10 more years of job losses and outsourcing of factories. Our economy cannot stand 10 more years of sending $2 billion every 24 hours to foreign countries for oil. And our soldiers and their families cannot take another 10 years of repeated troop deployments to dangerous regions that just happen to have large oil supplies.

What could we do instead for the next 10 years? What should we do during the next 10 years? Some of our greatest accomplishments as a nation have resulted from commitments to reach a goal that fell well beyond the next election: the Marshall Plan, Social Security, the interstate highway system. But a political promise to do something 40 years from now is universally ignored because everyone knows that it's meaningless. Ten years is about the maximum time that we as a nation can hold a steady aim and hit our target.
When President John F. Kennedy challenged our nation to land a man on the moon and bring him back safely in 10 years, many people doubted we could accomplish that goal. But 8 years and 2 months later, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walked on the surface of the moon.

To be sure, reaching the goal of 100 percent renewable and truly clean electricity within 10 years will require us to overcome many obstacles. At present, for example, we do not have a unified national grid that is sufficiently advanced to link the areas where the sun shines and the wind blows to the cities in the East and the West that need the electricity. Our national electric grid is critical infrastructure, as vital to the health and security of our economy as our highways and telecommunication networks. Today, our grids are antiquated, fragile, and vulnerable to cascading failure. Power outages and defects in the current grid system cost US businesses more than $120 billion dollars a year. It has to be upgraded anyway.

We could further increase the value and efficiency of a Unified National Grid by helping our struggling auto giants switch to the manufacture of plug-in electric cars. An electric vehicle fleet would sharply reduce the cost of driving a car, reduce pollution, and increase the flexibility of our electricity grid.

At the same time, of course, we need to greatly improve our commitment to efficiency and conservation. That's the best investment we can make.

America's transition to renewable energy sources must also include adequate provisions to assist those Americans who would unfairly face hardship. For example, we must recognize those who have toiled in dangerous conditions to bring us our present energy supply. We should guarantee good jobs in the fresh air and sunshine for any coal miner displaced by impacts on the coal industry. Every single one of them.

Of course, we could and should speed up this transition by insisting that the price of carbon-based energy include the costs of the environmental damage it causes. I have long supported a sharp reduction in payroll taxes with the difference made up in CO2 taxes. We should tax what we burn, not what we earn. This is the single most important policy change we can make.

In order to foster international cooperation, it is also essential that the United States rejoin the global community and lead efforts to secure an international treaty at Copenhagen in December of next year that includes a cap on CO2 emissions and a global partnership that recognizes the necessity of addressing the threats of extreme poverty and disease as part of the world's agenda for solving the climate crisis.

Of course the greatest obstacle to meeting the challenge of 100 percent renewable electricity in 10 years may be the deep dysfunction of our politics and our self-governing system as it exists today. In recent years, our politics has tended toward incremental proposals made up of small policies designed to avoid offending special interests, alternating with occasional baby steps in the right direction. Our democracy has become sclerotic at a time when these crises require boldness.

It is only a truly dysfunctional system that would buy into the perverse logic that the short-term answer to high gasoline prices is drilling for more oil ten years from now.

Am I the only one who finds it strange that our government so often adopts a so-called solution that has absolutely nothing to do with the problem it is supposed to address? When people rightly complain about higher gasoline prices, we propose to give more money to the oil companies and pretend that they're going to bring gasoline prices down. It will do nothing of the sort, and everyone knows it. If we keep going back to the same policies that have never ever worked in the past and have served only to produce the highest gasoline prices in history alongside the greatest oil company profits in history, nobody should be surprised if we get the same result over and over again. But the Congress may be poised to move in that direction anyway because some of them are being stampeded by lobbyists for special interests that know how to make the system work for them instead of the American people.

If you want to know the truth about gasoline prices, here it is: the exploding demand for oil, especially in places like China, is overwhelming the rate of new discoveries by so much that oil prices are almost certain to continue upward over time no matter what the oil companies promise. And politicians cannot bring gasoline prices down in the short term.

However, there actually is one extremely effective way to bring the costs of driving a car way down within a few short years. The way to bring gas prices down is to end our dependence on oil and use the renewable sources that can give us the equivalent of $1 per gallon gasoline.

Many Americans have begun to wonder whether or not we've simply lost our appetite for bold policy solutions. And folks who claim to know how our system works these days have told us we might as well forget about our political system doing anything bold, especially if it is contrary to the wishes of special interests. And I've got to admit, that sure seems to be the way things have been going. But I've begun to hear different voices in this country from people who are not only tired of baby steps and special interest politics, but are hungry for a new, different and bold approach.

We are on the eve of a presidential election. We are in the midst of an international climate treaty process that will conclude its work before the end of the first year of the new president's term. It is a great error to say that the United States must wait for others to join us in this matter. In fact, we must move first, because that is the key to getting others to follow; and because moving first is in our own national interest.

So I ask you to join with me to call on every candidate, at every level, to accept this challenge - for America to be running on 100 percent zero-carbon electricity in 10 years. It's time for us to move beyond empty rhetoric. We need to act now.

This is a generational moment. A moment when we decide our own path and our collective fate. I'm asking you - each of you - to join me and build this future. Please join the WE campaign at wecansolveit.org.We need you. And we need you now. We're committed to changing not just light bulbs, but laws. And laws will only change with leadership.

On July 16, 1969, the United States of America was finally ready to meet President Kennedy's challenge of landing Americans on the moon. I will never forget standing beside my father a few miles from the launch site, waiting for the giant Saturn 5 rocket to lift Apollo 11 into the sky. I was a young man, 21 years old, who had graduated from college a month before and was enlisting in the United States Army three weeks later.

I will never forget the inspiration of those minutes. The power and the vibration of the giant rocket's engines shook my entire body. As I watched the rocket rise, slowly at first and then with great speed, the sound was deafening. We craned our necks to follow its path until we were looking straight up into the air. And then four days later, I watched along with hundreds of millions of others around the world as Neil Armstrong took one small step to the surface of the moon and changed the history of the human race.

We must now lift our nation to reach another goal that will change history. Our entire civilization depends upon us now embarking on a new journey of exploration and discovery. Our success depends on our willingness as a people to undertake this journey and to complete it within 10 years. Once again, we have an opportunity to take a giant leap for humankind.

2008-07-22T10:47:00.000+09:00

Geosequestration: Turning Carbon Dioxide Into Rock To Offset Global Warming
sciencedaily.com, July 22, 2008

The same technology used to analyse minerals and atmosphere on Mars and other planets is being used by scientists from QUT to explore methods for geosequestration of carbon emissions.

Professor Ray Frost, from QUT's School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, said the idea of geosequestration was to trap carbon dioxide and to lock it into minerals deep underground.

Geosequestration of carbon dioxide is one of the methods under debate to reduce greenhouse gases and their effects on climate change.

"The concept of geosequestration involves liquifying carbon dioxide and depositing it into mineral zones below the earth's surface where chemical reactions of the liquid CO2 with minerals stabilise it in solid form," Professor Frost said.

He is using a range of magnesium minerals as models for geosequestration and investigating the extent of their reaction with CO2 and developing the methodology to determine the stability and detection of these minerals.

"One way of detecting and measuring magnesium carbonate minerals is the use of near-infrared spectroscopy which is what scientists used to analyse Mars' minerals and atmosphere," Professor Frost said.

"We are using near-infrared spectroscopy to identify suitable rocks below the earth's surface in which to safely store carbon dioxide."

He said the geosequestration process would involve carbon dioxide being captured from power station stacks and liquefied under pressure.

"Then it would be a matter of pumping it down into rock that has deposits of magnesium minerals in it. The presence of magnesium turns the liquid carbon dioxide into a stable, safe rock - magnesium carbonate.

"Magnesium is very common in a wide range of minerals and it is needed to react with the liquefied CO2 so that it doesn't turn back into gas and escape," he said.

The near infrared spectroscope is being used to identify the materials found underground in order to find suitable magnesium-bearing rocks.

"Capturing and liquefying the carbon dioxide is already possible. We now need to find suitable places to put it in such as old coal mines or depleted oil reservoirs."

Professor Frost said QUT was looking for industry partners for financial support in testing the models for geosequestration.

"I think it will be an inexpensive method and existing power stations could be retrofitted to capture the carbon dioxide."

Adapted from materials provided by Queensland University of Technology.

2008-07-21T22:44:00.000+09:00

Massive Greenhouse Gases May Be Released As Destruction, Drying Of World Wetlands Worsen
sciencedaily.com, July 21, 2008

Leading world scientists convene in Brazil July 21-25 amid growing concern that evaporation and ongoing destruction of world wetlands, which hold a volume of carbon similar to that in the atmosphere today, could cause them to exhale billows of greenhouse gases.

Meeting in the city of Cuiaba on the edge of South America's vast Pantanal, the largest wetland of its kind, some 700 experts from 28 nations at the 8th INTECOL International Wetlands Conference will prescribe measures urgently needed to better understand and manage these vibrant ecosystems, ranked among the planet's most threatened, and slow their decline and loss.

Warming world temperatures are speeding both rates of decomposition of trapped organic material and evaporation, while threatening critical sources of wetlands recharge by melting glaciers and reducing precipitation.

Covering just 6% of Earth's land surface, wetlands (including marshes, peat bogs, swamps, river deltas, mangroves, tundra, lagoons and river floodplains) store 10-20% of its terrestrial carbon. Wetlands slow the decay of organic material trapped and locked away over the ages in low oxygen conditions.

These waterlogged (either seasonally or year-round) areas contain an estimated 771 gigatonnes (771 billion tonnes) of greenhouse gases -- both CO2 and more potent methane -- an amount in CO2 equivalent comparable to the carbon content of today's atmosphere.

"Humanity in many parts of the world needs a wake-up call to fully appreciate the vital environmental, social and economic services wetlands provide -- absorbing and holding carbon, moderating water levels, supporting biodiversity and countless others," says conference co-chair Paulo Teixeira, Co-ordinator of the Cuiaba-based Pantanal Regional Environmental Programme, a joint effort of the United Nations University and Brazil's Federal University of Mato Grasso (UFMT), which will host the event.

Says UN Under Secretary-General Konrad Osterwalder, Rector of UNU: "Too often in the past, people have unwittingly considered wetlands to be problems in need of a solution. Yet wetlands are essential to the planet's health -- and with hindsight, the problems in reality have turned out to be the draining of wetlands and other 'solutions' we humans devised."

If the decline of wetlands continues through human and climate change-related causes, scientists fear the release of carbon from these traditional sinks could compound the global warming problem significantly, says Prof. Paulo Speller, Rector of UFMT. Drained tropical swamp forests release an estimated 40 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year. Drained peat bogs release some 2.5 to 10 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year.

Adds Prof. Speller: "This landmark conference beside the Pantanal will gather an overview of the status of global wetlands, identify knowledge gaps, create greater collaboration and consistency in wetland science worldwide, and offer a plain-spoken policy prescription for decision makers with an appeal to adopt it with urgency."

German expert Wolfgang Junk says the impact of climate change on wetlands is small so far compared to the damage caused by poor management at the local level.

"Lessening the stress on wetlands caused by pollution and other human assaults will improve their resiliency and represents an important climate change adaptation strategy," he says. "Wetland rehabilitation, meanwhile, represents a viable alternative to artificial flood control and dredging efforts that may be needed to cope with the larger, more frequent floods predicted in a hotter world."

Prof. Junk, of the Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Biology, notes that maintenance of wetlands is much cheaper than rehabilitation and that poorer countries will have fewer means to rehabilitate their wetlands to cope with climate change. Wetland-friendly development alternatives must be elaborated in developing countries, therefore, to minimize losses of their many benefits, he says.

He notes too that while pressure on wetlands in poorer countries has risen dramatically in recent years, they have not suffered nearly as much damage as those in the developed world.

Some 60% of wetlands worldwide -- and up to 90% in Europe -- have been destroyed in the past 100 years, principally due to drainage for agriculture but also through pollution, dams, canals, groundwater pumping, urban development and peat extraction.

Notwithstanding recent efforts in such countries as Australia and the U.S. (which has lost 50 million of an estimated 90 million hectares of wetlands 500 years ago) to protect wetlands and reverse past damage, at a world scale they continue to shrink.

"Wetlands act as sponges and their role as sources, reservoirs and regulators of water is largely underappreciated by many farmers and others who rely on steady water supplies," says Prof. Junk. "They also cleanse water of organic pollutants, prevent downstream flood inundations, protect riverbanks and seashores from erosion, recycle nutrients and capture sediment."

Typically high in nutrients, wetlands also offer rich habitats for small organisms which feed fish and other water life, which in turn nourish mammals and birds. Many wetlands feature biodiversity comparable to that of rainforests or coral reefs.

Conference organizers say efficient protection of wetlands requires complex, long term management plans that cover their entire catchment areas, often involving agreements between states or countries. These agreements need to cover activities that affect wetlands both directly and indirectly, such as the use of water and soils, development, waste treatment and disposal, but also harmonization of environmental legislation for protection of wetlands and all that lives in them.

Background information

* Wetlands along the flood-prone Mississippi once stored 60 days of the river's floodwater; today they can store only 12 days' worth.
* Around Africa's Lake Victoria, wetlands are so degraded they can no longer filter nitrate and phosphate runoff from surrounding land. The result: eutrophication and an explosive growth of lake-clogging water hyacinth.
* In Malaysia, 90 percent of freshwater swamps have been drained for rice cultivation.
* A study of a large wetland in arid northern Nigeria found it yielded an economic benefit in fish, firewood, cattle grazing lands and natural crop irrigation 30 times greater than the yield of water being diverted from the wetland into a costly irrigation project.
* At US$15 000 per hectare per year, the economic value of flood prevention and other ecological services provided by wetlands is greater than any other ecosystem -- seven times that of the next most valuable, tropical rainforests, according to a recent study.
* The peat bogs of Siberia, North America and Scandinavia contain a third of all carbon in the world's soils. Those in Scotland contain more than 90 percent of the carbon in British soils and forests.
* The US will spend $700 million over two decades to revive the Florida Everglades. It will include six artificial wetlands ("storm water treatment areas"), to receive and cleanse excess nutrients from neighbouring farm districts.
* The world's most threatened wetlands include those around the Mediterranean, where for two millennia the population has been draining wetlands and floodplains for agriculture -- and more recently for urban areas, tourist developments, and to eradicate malarial mosquitoes.
* Both Spain and Greece drained 60 percent of their wetlands in the last century. Pumping of groundwater for agricultural irrigation is drying Spanish wetlands such as the Doñana reserve, one of Europe's top sanctuaries for wintering birds, where the water table is falling one meter every two years.
* Wetlands constitute an estimated 20% of South America but they are poorly mapped or classified by characteristics.
* The vast, remote and relatively pristine Pantanal, spanning 160,000 square km, is confronted by increasing development pressure. Its catchment area straddles Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, while Uruguay and Argentina are downstream.

2008-07-20T11:45:00.001+09:00

Banking on carbon trading: Can banks stop climate change?
CNN, July 20, 2008

Who would think the banks would land the job of sorting out the world's climate change problems?

But strange as it may seem, there are many who believe that only the world's financial institutions can help us now.

Since the arrival of the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the 'Kyoto Market', backed by the United Nations' Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), some of the world's biggest banks have been stepping up their activities in carbon finance.

They say it is to ensure these two carbon trading markets actually do what they are supposed to do. And that is to reduce emissions and to spur the global move towards renewable energy.

Their detractors, however, are concerned that all carbon trading will ultimately do is make the banks a lot of money.

Under the ETS system, around 12,000 polluting installations across the EU have been "capped" with greenhouse gas quotas based on the host countries' Kyoto obligations. The ones that exceed their cap must buy "carbon permits" from other companies that operate below their own quota.

Under the CDM scheme, companies in the developed world that have exceeded their cap can pay off their carbon debt by investing in CDM-approved eco projects in developing countries using "carbon credits" -- one credit equaling one tonne of avoided C02 equivalent gases that would have otherwise been pumped into the atmosphere.

A new commodity?

Proponents of carbon trading -- or "cap and trade" as it is sometimes called -- say it will offer incentives to companies setting out on the road to sustainability, and will hit polluting companies where it hurts most - their wallets.

Supporters also say that more sophisticated financial products developed by the banks will spur the demand for carbon credits, putting even more of a squeeze on companies not getting on the sustainable bandwagon.

But it could also hurt consumers too.

If demand for carbon credits go sky high, so will their prices. When the companies forced to buy carbon credits are energy companies, the costs they incur could ultimately get passed down the line, which would then mean higher fuel bills.

According to Abyd Karmali, the London-based global head of carbon emissions for Merrill Lynch, however, that is just par for the course. He believes financial pressure could be the only thing to get the world switching to a more sustainable way of life -- and that applies to companies and individuals alike.

"We have to find a way to price CO2," Karmali says.

"These sectors are grappling in an environment where there is now a price on C02. So it is providing them an opportunity to reduce emissions. They are passing costs on to the consumer, but what we are now seeing in Europe is an increasing demand for energy efficient products.

"And this is how the carbon market is supposed to work."

When more people and companies get their heads around energy efficiency and sustainable living, price volatility will ease off, he says.

"In the short term there will be price volatility and political backlash, but the long term trend is fairly clear: undertaking reductions now is significantly cheaper than inaction," says Karmali.

"And that over time there will be a reduction in the price volatility as behavior changes."

Is it a "zero-sum" game?

Critics of carbon trading have often referred to it as a "zero-sum" game, as any C02 saving gained from the investment is effectively neutralized by the fact that the purchaser has avoided having to decrease its own C02 emissions.

"The real question is whether carbon trading in the end will have any impact on greenhouse gas emissions," says David St Maur Sheil, director and co-founder of the Association for Sustainable and Responsible Investment in Asia (ASrIA) in Hong Kong.

"Some say that in a way it is developing into something that is very effective as a market but not having the proportionate amount of impact."

What hasn't helped matters recently have been revelations of companies gaining CDM financing for renewable energy projects they were planning to undertake anyway, undermining the very principle of how carbon credits get issued.

"The whole point of carbon trading is to make investments that wouldn't ordinarily have taken place," says Sheil.

"In some cases it has been shown that companies have intended to make this investment anyway, which throws into question how the system can be manipulated."

A growing market

According to the World Bank, the global carbon market doubled in size from 2006 to 2007, reaching $64 billion; $50 billion of that passed through the ETS market, representing 2.1 billion permits/tonnes of C02 equivalent.

The CDM mechanism's trading volume, on the other hand, has been relatively modest, with an estimated 551 million credits/tonnes of C02 equivalent passing through the primary market last year, according to World Bank, worth around $7.4 billion.

Out of that, the vast majority of CDM business has gone to China. By contrast Africa has been largely overlooked, leaving some complaining that the very countries that could do with the extra money are being ignored in favor of markets that can fund themselves.

"These carbon markets do demand - and need - a certain level of infrastructure; they also need to build up within those countries experienced people that can build the industry," says ASrIA's Sheil.

"Places like Africa where there is less money, it could be prioritized."

Karmali points out however that one of the reasons Africa has been largely overlooked is mainly because of investors chasing gases with higher global warming potential -- such as the refrigeration gas HFC which can be eliminated cheaply -- that gives them better deals.

He says Merrill Lynch is currently putting together a portfolio of renewable energy assets from the continent.

While Merrill Lynch says its business is split 50/50 between ETS and CDM, Karmali says its future is firmly with Kyoto's CDM scheme.

And key to its future success will be fine tuning the variety of risks associated with trading in it.

In the early days of the carbon credit market it was a confusing landscape to navigate, says Karmali, not least for the large numbers of consultants and experts companies had to deal with who were not always well-versed in Kyoto or the CDM and the various risks involved in embarking in these projects.

Today, the resources available to CDM traders are markedly better, he says, largely because banks like Merrill Lynch have started expanding their operations into new areas, including building their own portfolios of CDM projects to offer clients.

"It is much more sophisticated. People have realized to be successful you need the Kyoto institutional knowledge. You then have to have project management expertise, someone top notch sitting on a project. You now see banks like Merrill Lynch involved in greater levels in the carbon credit market."

However, there are concerns that with the arrival of big players like Merrill Lynch on the scene, the carbon market could get a little too sophisticated, attracting increasingly complicated financial products to the market, which could generate big fees for the product providers but leaving the investors potentially exposed.
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"What the banks are now doing is finding the projects themselves and creating portfolios for clients. When the financial organization is putting this together they can group together high risk and low risk and make it physically safer for investors," says Sheil.

"But the twist is they are doing the same thing as they did for the sub prime mortgage market. And there has been some speculation that as the carbon market grows and becomes more complicated, it could create a sub prime mortgage market situation in the future."

2008-07-19T11:50:00.000+09:00

The floating ecopolis
CNN, July 11, 2008

The concept may be radical, but it might just have to be if the worst predictions of climate change are realized.

The Lilypad, a floating ecopolis for climatic refugees, is the creation of Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut.

"It is" he says, "a true amphibian, half aquatic and half terrestrial city, able to accommodate 50,000 inhabitants and inviting biodiversity".

Callebaut imagines his structure at 250 times the scale of a lilypad, with a skin made of polyester fibres coated in titanium dioxide which would react with ultraviolet light and absorb atmospheric pollution.

The Lilypad comprises of three marinas and three mountain regions with streets and structures strewn with foliage. "The goal is to create a harmonious coexistence of humans and nature," said Callebaut.

With a central fresh water lagoon acting as ballast, the whole construction would be carbon neutral utilizing solar, thermal, wind, hydraulic, tidal and osmotic energies.

With high density populations living in low-lying areas -- The Netherlands, Polynesia, Bangladesh -- the ecopolis, its creator believes, could be the answer to mass human displacement that global warming is predicted to cause.

In its most recent 2007 report the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted sea levels will rise by 60-90 cm during this century. Some climate scientists like James Hansen think that if greenhouse gas emissions aren't checked then those figures might be much, much worse.

In practice, Callebaut envisages the Lilypad sailing the seas, following currents like a futuristic cruise ship. He also thinks that it could "widen sustainability in offshore territories of the most developed countries such as Monaco".

You can't help thinking that the well-heeled residents of the Principality might have a thing or two to say about 50,000 climatic refugees bobbing around in the harbour, but you cannot fault Callebaut's ambition.

His previous creations -- showcased on his website -- reveal an imagination working at full throttle with sustainable design lying at its heart.
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Anti-Smog -- a prototype of depolluting architecture and Ecomic -- an ecotower rising up from the foundations of Aztec ruins are two further examples of his eco design credentials. The Perfumed Jungle, Fields in Fields and The Fractured Monolith may sound like titles for various genres of novel but are, in fact, names for sustainable projects in Callebaut's growing portfolio.

Now all he needs is to find someone brave enough to build on the vision he has created.

2008-07-18T09:34:00.002+09:00

First tidal power turbine gets plugged in
guardian.co.uk, Thursday July 17, 2008

An underwater turbine that generates electricity from tidal streams was plugged into the UK's national grid today. It marks the first time a commercial-scale underwater turbine has fed power into the network and the start of a new source of renewable energy for the UK.

Tidal streams are seen by many as a plentiful and predictable supply of clean energy. The most conservative estimates suggest there is at least five gigawatts of power in tidal flows around the country, but there could be as much as 15GW.

The trial at Strangford Lough, in Northern Ireland, uses a device called SeaGen and generates power at 150kW. However, engineers have plans to increase power to 300kW by the end of the summer. When it is eventually running at full power SeaGen will have an output of 1,200 kW, enough for about 1,000 homes.

SeaGen was designed and built by the Bristol-based tidal energy company Marine Current Turbines (MCT), which also installed the test device at Strangford in May.

"The best way to think of it is an underwater windmill," said Martin Wright, managing director of MCT. "There are big masses of water moving on the Earth's surface as a result of the gravitational attraction of the moon. Therefore you have streams occurring where you have accelerated flow."

Tidal generators harvest the energy of these moving streams with the added advantage that the resource is, unlike wind, predictable.

The secretary of state for business, John Hutton, said: "This kind of world-first technology and innovation is key to helping the UK reduce its dependency on fossil fuels and secure its future energy supplies.

"Marine power has the potential to play an important role in helping us meet our challenging targets for a massive increase in the amount of energy generated from renewables."

The Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform supported Seagen with a £5.2m grant, helping take its plans from the drawing board to the first demonstrator.

The cost of installing the marine turbines is £3m for every megawatt they eventually generate, which compares to £2.3m per megawatt for offshore wind. The costs will drop if the technology is more widely adopted.

Robin Oakley, head of Greenpeace UK's climate and energy campaign, welcomed the SeaGen trial: "Britain should be at the forefront of marine renewable energy development. Our windswept island has huge renewable resources and we should seize the opportunities to secure energy from around our coasts.

"Clean reliable tidal stream power can make a massive contribution to Britain, cutting CO2 and fuel consumption. But it also offers a chance for us to be world leaders in a new and potentially huge industry."

After SeaGen starts operating at full capacity, MCT plans to build a farm of turbines before 2011. "Our next site will be off the coast of Anglesey, the initial farm is about 10.5MW," said Wright. "The resource up there is around 350MW."

The Pentland Firth, the Channel Islands and the Severn estuary are also potential hotspots for tidal energy.

Wright said: "I hope it makes people believe that tidal power isn't 20 to 30 years away and a dream, but it is something that, if we get the right resources around it, could become a significant reality and contributor much quicker than that."

2008-07-14T10:56:00.000+09:00

Melting Of The Greenland Ice Cap May Have Consequences For Climatic Change
sciencedaily.com, May 8, 2007

According to two international-research studies on the last ice age, studies with the participation of Dr Rainer Zahn, research professor in the ICREA at the UAB Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), before the great ice sheets of the Arctic Ocean began to melt, early sporadic episodes of melting of the old ice sheet which covered the British Isles had already begun to affect the circulation of the ocean currents, which played a key role in the climatic stability of the planet. Based on this observation, scientists consider that the acceleration of the melting of the Greenland ice cap could play an important role in the future stability of ocean circulation and, hence, in the development of climate change.

The magnitude of possible climate change in the future will depend to a large degree on the response of ocean circulation to global warming, as the ocean currents distribute an immense quantity of heat around our planet and, besides, determine levels of humidity and energy. Any variation in ocean circulation may lead to substantial and abrupt climate changes (that is to say over less than 30 years) on a global scale.

Deep ocean sediments offer a record of ocean circulation in the past. By studying these sediments, we can see that abrupt changes in ocean circulation and the subsequent climate change are not a new phenomenon, but have happened on several occasions in the past. When the great ice sheets covering North America and Scandinavia melted at the end of the last ice age, the subsequent flow of fresh water into the North Atlantic caused the greatest natural disturbance in ocean circulation in the last 20,000 years. This episode provides an excellent model to examine the relation between ocean disturbance and climate instability.

According to a revision article published in Science, ocean circulation during the last ice age was very different to present day circulation. The formation of deep water currents in the North Atlantic was much weaker and the flow of warm water from the Gulf Stream decreased. This led to a cooling of the northern hemisphere and contributed to the formation of the great ice caps which covered North America, Scandinavia and Europe.

In a similar study, the marine sediments of the North Atlantic were observed in order to document the sequence of events that led to that disturbance. The melting caused a significant decrease in the Gulf Stream, which transports warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the North. This submerged the region of the North Atlantic into a period of glacial cold which lasted at least 1,200 years.

Nevertheless, the slowing down of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic began about 700 to 1,200 years before this great melting of the ice caps and the subsequent flow of fresh water into the ocean took place. The very first stage of this change coincided with brief and isolated periods of melting of the small British Ice Sheet (BIS). The authors of the study have come to this conclusion from an observation of the fine layers of sediment (formed by grains of quartz) coming from successive waves of icebergs which, when they melted dumped their load of sediments onto the sea bed. These icebergs came from the edges of the ice which surround and stabilised the BIS.

These results show that the disturbances caused by melting may in turn cause substantial changes in ocean circulation without the need for a catastrophic dumping of fresh water. This seems to indicate that an acceleration in the melting of the Greenland ice cap, could, in fact, play a key role in the future stability of ocean circulation and climate change in the whole North Atlantic region.

2008-07-13T10:53:00.000+09:00

Growing Greener Lawns: Soil Scientists Stabilize Fire Ravaged Topsoil With New Technology
sciencedaily.com, July 1, 2008

Chemists and engineers designed a technology that protects soil. A polymer encased in recycled paper bonds to positive ions in soil to form clumps. These clods of dirt break up the hard surface that can form following a fire, promoting the absorption of water, which stops soil from being flushed away during a heavy rain. This process helps promote the plant growth that will keep the topsoil in place over the long term.

Every summer, wildfires consume thousands of acres of vegetation, threaten wildlife and set the stage for mudslides that can wreak even more havoc. Now, scientists have developed a new kind of soil technology that could stabilize those areas and help them grow again. And now, there could be an added bonus for anyone trying to keep their lawn greener this summer.

For homeowner David Feschuk the challenge is keeping his lawn green through a long drought. "I don't want the grass to die and at the same rate I want to be able to conserve water to not overwater the grass and have the water run off," said Feschuk.

For the forest service, it's bringing back a scorched mountainside after a devastating wildfire. Now, a new kind of soil technology offers solutions for both.

Now soil scientists in Wisconsin have developed a way to turn office waste into a product that can stabilize the soil Recycled paper is dried and combined with chemically made polymers and other ingredients. When mixed with soil, the ingredients are attracted together -- like a magnet -- creating a net. Industrial engineer Mike Krysiak, Industrial Engineer & President of ENCAP, calls it AST … advanced soil technology.

"Advanced soil technology is about engaging the soil to do the work -- stops erosion, helps with better water penetration," said Krysiak.

Dropped by aircraft, the product, called Pam 12 is now being used by the forest service to stabilize burn areas.

Researchers say that same technology is used in soil-binding lawn products that don't wash away, and won't damage the environment. They've even developed a new kind of seed watering technology that actually tells you when it needs watering.

It's new technology designed to reduce paper waste, save water, restore burned hillsides and make your world a little greener.

WHAT IS ADVANCED SOIL TECHNOLOGY? AST is the term used for the product that helps stabilize fire-ravaged soil against erosion. It consists of polymers encased in recycled paper which bond to positive ions in the soil. This process forms clumps, breaking up the hard surface that can form following a fire. This promotes the absorption of water, stopping rain from flushing away soil. This process promotes the plant growth that will hold topsoil in place for the long term.

RUNNING WILD: Weather is a key factor in starting and spreading wildfires -- particularly drought, which dries out vegetation. Trees, underbrush, dry grassy fields, pine needles, dry leaves and twigs can all cause and spread forest fires because they burn faster, like kindling, than large logs or stumps. The more fuel that is present, the more intensely the fire will burn and the faster it will spread. When the fuel is very dry, such as after a long drought, it is consumed much faster, and the fire is much more difficult to contain. As the fire spreads, it generates heat that evaporates the moisture in potential fuel materials just beyond it, making it easier for those to ignite. Wind can also help spread a forest fire, and is the most unpredictable factor. Winds supply the fire with extra oxygen and push it across the land at a faster rate. Because the wind generally flows uphill, fires also travel faster up a slope than downhill. Wildfires can even generate their own winds, called fire whirls, which resemble tornados. They arise from the vortices created by the fire's heat, and can be so strong they have been known to hurl flaming logs and burning debris over long distances.

2008-07-12T10:51:00.001+09:00

Saving Marshes - Saving The Planet
sciencedaily.com, July 1, 2008

Soil Scientists Restore Marshes To Protect Coastal Ecology

Soil scientists spread material dredged from shipping channels over shore areas to help rebuild marsh areas. Wetlands along the shore protect the land from storm surges, create habitat for wildlife, and the plants that grow in them could sequester three to eight tons of carbon dioxide per acre every year.

Our nations wetlands are disappearing at an alarming rate. But now, marshes are being restored to help save the planet.

Bill Giese has lived near wetlands his whole life, and year after year he's watched a once thriving marsh disappear. "We've lost over 8,000 acres of wetland vegetation," said Giese.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide causes global warming, which causes rising sea levels that are then washing away wetlands. But tidal marshes are excellent at capturing carbon dioxide.

"Now, the beauty of a tidal marsh the decomposition is very slow, so most of the carbon that's fixed, or sequestered, stays. It doesn't get returned back to the atmosphere," Brian Needelman, Ph.D., soil scientist at the University of Maryland, told Ivanhoe.

Now, soil scientists are wading through soggy, murky marshes in a new project to help restore wetlands and help reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Dirt and sediment from the bottom of rivers and bays are pumped into washed-out marshes. New marsh grasses are planted, die and decompose in the water -- taking carbon dioxide down with them. A healthy marsh can collect three to eight tons of carbon dioxide per acre a year.

"What we do is take a soil sample each year and we try to tell how much more carbon is in the soil after each year, and it increases slowly from year to year," Dr. Needelman said.

Marshes are a vital habitat for wildlife; they improve water quality and prevent shoreline erosion. Restoring wetlands is essential for a healthy earth.

"If we want marshes as part of our ecosystem and part of our lives, then we need to restore them and we need to build new ones," said Dr. Needelman.

Helping to save the planet one marsh at a time.

THE CARBON CYCLE: The carbon cycle describes the movement of carbon, in its many forms, between the earth, atmosphere, oceans, and the animals, plants and bacteria that live there. For example, much of the carbon stored in trees and soils is released into the atmosphere when forests are cleared and cultivated. Sometimes this release happens very quickly, like when a forest fire burns. Sometimes it happens slowly, as dead plants decompose. When forests regrow on cleared land, trees draw carbon from the atmosphere and store it again in the plants and soil. If the global totals for photosynthesis (plants taking CO2 from the air and using it for energy, giving off oxygen) and respiration (animals taking in oxygen and using it to make energy, giving off CO2) are not equal, carbon accumulates, either on land or in the atmosphere. The rates of photosynthesis and respiration are not known, and they're not measured well enough, but there does appear to be an imbalance, known as the "missing sink" of carbon. Yet the carbon cycle must be a closed system, which means there is a fixed amount of carbon; we just don't know where the missing carbon is yet. Understanding why there is an imbalance, and where it occurs, is critical to combating the threat of global warming.

ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING: Global warming refers to an increase in the earth's average temperature -- which has risen about 1 degree F over the past 100 years. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, and a rise in sea level, for example, as polar glaciers melt. Some of this rise is due to the greenhouse effect: certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy from the sun so that heat can't escape back into space. Without the greenhouse effect, the earth would be too cold for humans to survive, but if it becomes too strong, the earth could become much warmer than usual, causing problems for humans, plants and animals.

2008-07-09T18:24:00.000+09:00

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Plants

Read all about "clean coal" (strongly decried as an oxymoron in many circles) here:

http://www.aep.com/about/igcc/pdf/IGCCDrawing.pdf

2008-07-08T18:40:00.000+09:00

California charts course to fight global warming
The California Air Resources Board, June 26, 2008

Plan to slash greenhouse gases sets state on path to clean energy, new economic growth

SACRAMENTO-The California Air Resources Board charted a course today to reduce California's greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent over the next 12 years.

The measures and policies in the Climate Change Draft Scoping Plan set California on a trajectory toward a clean-energy future. The recommended reduction measures will continue to drive innovation, improve the environment and enhance public health, support the growth of the cleantech sector and create thousands of new jobs.

"With the release of this draft scoping plan, California is once again blazing a trail to lead other states and the nation to address climate change," said Mary Nichols, Chairman of the Air Resources Board. "Our economy and our society face no greater threat than global warming. This draft plan is the roadmap to move us quickly to a cleaner, more sustainable future, energy independence and a healthier environment. This plan fulfills the Governor's determination to act now, and it is based on the conviction that Californians will rise to the challenge and develop creative solutions to improve our environment and grow our economy."

Development of the Scoping Plan is a central requirement of AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Nuñez, Pavley), that calls on California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Governor Schwarzenegger signed the bill into law in September 2006. Release of the draft plan will be followed by further evaluation and economic modeling, and workshops are planned throughout the state to present the details to the general public allow ARB to hear public comments.

The comprehensive approach includes both new and existing measures in every sector of California's economy. It is designed with strong elements of enforcement and developed to ensure that emissions - and all reductions --are accurately tracked.

Central to the draft plan is a cap and trade program covering 85 percent of the state's emissions. This program will be developed in conjunction with the Western Climate Initiative (http://www.westernclimateinitiative.org/), comprised of seven states and three Canadian provinces, to create a regional carbon market.

The draft plan also proposes that utilities produce a third of their energy from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal, and proposes to expand and strengthen existing energy efficiency programs and building and appliance standards that have already saved Californians more than $50 billion over the past 30 years in reduced costs for energy.

The draft plan calls for full implementation of the California Clean Car law (the Pavley standards) to provide a wide range of less polluting and more efficient cars and trucks to consumers who will save on operating costs through reduced fuel use. It also calls for development and implementation of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/issue/env-lcfs/)which will require oil companies to make cleaner domestically produced fuels.

The draft plan encourages improvements to the ways we grow and build our communities to make more livable, walkable cities, and shorten commutes.

Several additional initiatives and measures play important roles in reaching the required reductions under AB 32. These include:

* full deployment of the Governor's Million Solar Roofs initiative (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/);
* a high-speed rail;
* water-related energy efficiency measures; and
* a range of regulations to reduce emissions from trucks and from ships docked in California ports.

Under the plan the State of California is committing to reducing its own carbon footprint by 30 percent. It also calls on Californians to make changes to their personal behavior to reduce their carbon footprint through carpooling and simple actions such as adjusting thermostats to use less energy for heating and cooling.

ARB invites public comment on the draft plan. Once the final draft is prepared, it will go to the Board for consideration in November. After adoption of the plan, all measures in the plan will be thoroughly vetted and analyzed, with full public input, over the next two years as they move through the regulatory process.

Preliminary economic modeling of the plan indicates that the overall savings from improved efficiency and the development of alternatives to petroleum will on the whole outweigh the costs. The draft plan recommends targeted fees to fund the state's long-term commitment to AB 32 administration.

The draft plan can be viewed at: www.arb.ca.gov

The Air Resources Board is a department of the California Environmental Protection Agency. ARB's mission is to promote and protect public health, welfare, and ecological resources through effective reduction of air pollutants while recognizing and considering effects on the economy. The ARB oversees all air pollution control efforts in California to attain and maintain health based air quality standards. http://www.arb.ca.gov

2008-06-19T17:10:00.001+09:00

Smera Car Concept : Combination of Car and Motorcycle
tuvie.com

Still in a form of concept, Lumeneo Smera is all electric city car with scooter sized and one seat only, well not actually one seat, but you have to choose to carry a passanger or luggage, you can’t have both. The ability to go 93 miles on a single charge and hit a top-speed of 80 miles per hour is really impressive. Acceleration is quite acceptable as well, with the 0-60 sprint taking only 8 seconds or so. A 144 volt lithium ion battery pack provides the juice. Lumeneo is planning to start selling Smera next year, but no one mentions anything about the price yet.

2008-06-18T12:00:00.005+09:00

Free DIY Plans for a Regulated DC Bicycle Generator
scienceshareware.com

Video Demonstration

This design is used to charge cell hones, I-pods, power laptops, small televisions, video games, & charge car batteries.

Note: For this photo the bicycle powered generator is hooked up to a Sony Play Station PS2 video game. It runs at only 34 Watts while playing a Harry Potter game. This is easy for most teenagers to supply for an hour.

Step 1 - Order Parts

Step 2 - The Ascent Bike Trainer Stand

Step 3 - Ascent Magnetic 3 Level Trainer Friction Roller

Step 4+ Preparation

Bike Generator Car Alternator Specifications

This bike generator can deliver regulated DC voltage to low power items such as:
* Ipod (through 12V cigarette Lighter adapter)
* Portable DVD Player
* Power a 7 Watt 5 inch black and white TV
* Charge cell phones (All Types) using cigarette lighter style plug. Some one in their mid teens or higher can charge 5 or 6 phones at once.
* Charge a car battery through a 5 Ohm power resistor. If you don't use the resistor it is too hard to pedal.
* Supply power to Playstation 2 (PS2) Video Game
* DC Fan

BUILD BIKE GENERATOR AT YOUR OWN RISK
By using these plans you agree to have a licensed electrician look over your final project to make sure you have not wired up something wrong or left out fuses. You also agree that Scienceshareware.com is not liable for any harm caused to person or property from having built your own and operated own bicycle generator.

2008-06-17T11:43:00.004+09:00

The Pedal-A-Watt Stationary Bike Power Generator
econvergence.net

Pedal-A-Watt Stationary Bike Power Generator

The Pedal-A-Watt bicycle stand keeps the user aerobically fit while creating power that may be used to power lights and/or other small appliances. The Pedal-A-Watt may also be used to charge a battery so that the power may be used at a later time (see the PowerPak under the Accessories page). The battery may then be tapped at a later time, after dark for example, when the energy is needed to power lights or appliances.

The Pedal-A-Watt bicycle stand is an excellent addition to an existing battery system that may already be charged from the photovoltaic panels, 120 VAC grid power or wind power. The concept behind the Pedal-A-Watt bicycle is that electricity can be created from human effort and then stored in batteries.

The Cycle Charger

Charge a Cell Phone, iPod, Blackberry, Garmin GPS, any GPS or any other device that you can plug into your car's cigarette lighter plug
* Easily clips onto any bicycle
* Has a female cigarette lighter plug just like a car
* As you ride your bicycle your device will charge!
* Has a voltage regulator to ensure that the voltage never exceeds 12 vdc just like you car's cigarette lighter socket
* $89.95 with free shipping within the US ($19.95 shipping outside the US)

The PowerPak for The Pedal-A-Watt

A small, portable combination of a 400 watt (300 watt for 220 volt European version) inverter and battery. The PowerPak plugs into the Pedal-A-Watt and stores the electricity created in a battery. The PowerPak also has a two, typical household outlet, allowing you to plug appliances in (up to 400 watts) and power them! Cigarette lighter plug for powering small appliances. Meter shows battery state of charge. Unit has overvoltage protection. Includes a charging cable that terminates with a male cigarette lighter plug with blocking diode. PLEASE NOTE that this product is available for 120 volts AC, 60 Hz (United States) or 220 volts AC, 50 Hz (for Europe). PLEASE SPECIFY in the dropdown menu when ordering!

Power Meter for The Pedal-A-Watt

See exactly how much power your Pedal-A-Watt creating with this power meter. It connects easily inline in series with your Pedal-A-Watt and displays volts, amps, watts (power), watt hours and amp hours. A great way to demonstrate how much power the Pedal-A-Watt is creating. Needs no battery. Measures voltage from 0 to 60 v and current from 0 to 100 amps. The meter measures 2.8 inches long by 1.7 inches wide and is .83 inches thick.

2008-06-16T16:52:00.000+09:00

AC/DC Power Lines & Long-Distance Energy Transmission

High voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines are seen as the most efficient way to move electricity over long distances without incurring the losses experienced in alternating current (AC) power lines. HVDC cables can carry more power for the same thickness of cable compared with AC lines but are only suited to long distance transmission as they require expensive devices to convert the electricity, usually generated as AC, into DC. Modern HVDC cables can keep energy losses down to around 3% per 1,000km. HVDC can also be used to transfer electricity between different countries that might use AC at differing frequencies. HVDC cables can also be used to synchronise AC produced by renewable energy sources.

2008-06-15T11:34:00.000+09:00

Study Previews Ice Sheet Melting, Rapid Climate Change
sciencedaily.com, Mar. 12, 2006

The behavior of a massive ice sheet that existed in northern Europe at the end of the last Ice Age has been outlined for the first time, and researchers believe it may provide a sneak preview of how major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will act in the face of global warming.

The study, which will be published Friday in the journal Science by researchers from Oregon State University, shows that ice sheets can react quite differently depending on the climatic conditions at the time global warming occurs -- sometimes actually growing larger and sometimes rapidly disappearing, depending on whether increased snow offsets melting effects, or not.

In this analysis of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet that existed as recently as 10,000 years ago, the study showed that it actually grew for a long period while the climate was warming but still very cold, and then rapidly disintegrated once the climate warmed even further.

OSU experts say those same forces are at work today, and probably mean that in the face of future global warming, the ice in large parts of Antarctica may actually increase, while the massive Greenland ice sheet -- which exists in a slightly warmer setting -- will almost certainly disappear.

"This study supports what we've been learning about the Greenland ice sheet, which is that it will completely melt within 500 to 1,000 years," said Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at OSU and an international expert in the study of ancient ice sheets. "Our new analysis of the ancient Scandinavian Ice Sheet, like other studies, is showing how these events unfolded in the past, which will help us better understand what the future will hold."

If there is a net gain in ice in Antarctica, it will probably not be enough to offset the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, scientists say. By itself and without any offsetting mechanisms, a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by about 20-25 feet. One prediction is that sea levels should increase by a foot or two by 2100, and up to 25 feet within 500 years. Some of that sea level rise is based on melting of glaciers and major ice sheets, and some is based on thermal expansion of water in the oceans, which increases in size as it gets warmer.

In their study, the OSU researchers used a fairly new and sophisticated technique to date the time that rocks have been exposed at the surface, after they had been dumped in the open by an ice sheet. This technique, which measures isotopes of the element beryllium, allows scientists to determine with much greater accuracy how ice sheets may have moved in the distant past.

"On exposure to cosmic rays from the atmosphere, beryllium isotopes are produced at a known rate and we can use that to understand ice movements at the time," said Ed Brook, a professor of geosciences at OSU and an expert in this dating technique. "It's like a rock getting a very slow suntan, and we can learn a lot from it."

The huge ice sheet the OSU scientists studied once covered much of Northern Europe, including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Finland, where the study was conducted. At its peak it was about 6,000 feet thick and, after the massive ice sheet in North America, was the largest in the Northern Hemisphere. In the most recent Ice Age it existed from 10,000 to about 100,000 years ago, and its melting occurred at the same time as a major sea level rise. But only with this study has its behavior been analyzed in detail.

It appears this ice sheet grew and retreated three different times during this Ice Age. Of particular interest is that it behaved differently depending on whether climate conditions were cold or warmer. Researchers were able to correlate information about climate, largely obtained from ice cores drilled in Greenland, with data about sea level conditions and the ice sheet behavior.

"This study clearly showed that when the climate was warming but still pretty cold, the ice sheet grew due to increased precipitation that fell as snow, and more than made up for any melting," Clark said. "But at some point the warming became more pronounced, did not offset any increases in snow, and the ice sheet disappeared fairly rapidly."

Scientists believe those exact forces may both be displayed as the Earth warms due to the greenhouse effect -- there may be some increase in the East Antarctic ice sheet, where the climate is much colder, and rapid loss of ice in Greenland. Of less certainty,

Brook said, is the fate of the West Antarctic ice sheet, whose bottom is actually below sea level and may be at risk of collapse in a warming climate.

Also uncertain, the scientists said, is what effects the rapid melting of Greenland's ice sheet may have on ocean currents. There is significant concern that the rapid injection of large amounts of fresh water into this part of the North Atlantic Ocean may interfere with a major "thermohaline circulation" pattern that is responsible for the currents that warm much of Europe. Lacking those currents, much of Europe's climate would more closely resemble that of central Canada than the comparatively mild climate it currently has. It appears this current pattern has shut down several times in the distant past.

Much of the work on this study was done by Vincent Rinterknecht, an OSU doctoral student in geosciences at the time of the research and now a visiting scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.

These studies are confirming that the melting of ice sheets and their associated effects can be comparatively abrupt and rapid, the researchers said, once a certain level of warming is reached.

2008-06-14T10:38:00.000+09:00

Global Warming Equals Stronger Hurricanes
sciencedaily.com, February 1, 2008

Meteorologists Find That Increased Ocean Temperatures Cause Increasingly Intense Hurricanes

Climate change experts studying hurricanes documented a 35-year warming trend in ocean surface temperature and linked it to larger hurricanes. The increase has been 1 degree Fahrenheit, resulting in four percent more atmospheric water vapor and six to eight percent more rainfall. Though global warming does not guarantee that each year will see record-strength hurricanes, the long-term ocean warming should raise the baseline of hurricane activity.

According to new research, hurricanes in the North Atlantic are stronger and larger than ever before. Scientists now say they know what's to blame.

Winds topping over 75 miles per hour … rain slamming down … waves crashing into the coast!

Some climate scientists believe hurricanes in the North Atlantic loom more dangerous than ever. But now they say … they think know why.

"Since about 1970, there has been a warming of the global oceans including the areas where the hurricanes form due to increases in carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," Kevin Trenberth, NCAR Scientist in Boulder, Colo., told Ivanhoe.

Trenberth builds his case asking the tough questions. "Do they get more intense? Do they get bigger? Do they last longer? Are there more of them?" Trenberth asks.

Over the past 35 years, the Atlantic's sea surface temperature has increased one degree Fahrenheit. The result … a four-percent increase of atmospheric water vapor and a six to eight-percent increase in rainfall.

Conditions that contribute to larger, more forceful, hurricanes. The cause -- Trenberth says predominantly global warming. "What we think is likely to happen, they will get more intense, they will likely get a little bigger, but maybe there may not be quite as many," Trenberth said. Other scientists aren't so convinced and believe the warming is a natural occurrence, but either way -- a forecast for the future that impacts us all.

How does a hurricane form? A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, a low-pressure system that usually forms in the tropics and has winds that circulate counterclockwise near the earth's surface.

Storms are considered hurricanes when their wind speeds surpass 74 MPH. Every hurricane arises from the combination of warm water and moist warm air. Tropical thunderstorms drift out over warm ocean waters and encounter winds coming in from near the equator.

Warm, moist air from the ocean surface rises rapidly, encounters cooler air, and condenses into water vapor to form storm clouds, releasing heat in the process. This heat causes the condensation process to continue, so that more and more warm moist air is drawn into the developing storm, creating a wind pattern that spirals around the relatively calm center, or eye, of the storm, much like water swirling down a drain. The winds keep circling and accelerating to form a classic cyclone pattern.

2008-06-13T11:02:00.000+09:00

Record Warm Summers Cause Extreme Ice Melt In Greenland
sciencedaily.com, Jan 16, 2008

An international team of scientists, led by Dr Edward Hanna at the University of Sheffield, has demonstrated that recent warm summers have caused the most extreme Greenland ice melting in 50 years. The new research provides further evidence of a key impact of global warming and helps scientists place recent satellite observations of Greenland´s shrinking ice mass in a longer-term climatic context.

Dr Hanna of the University´s Department of Geography, alongside some of the World´s leading Greenland glaciologists and climatologists, analysed a combination of key meteorological and glaciological records spanning a number of decades as part of the research.

The findings show how the Greenland Ice Sheet responded to more regional, rather than global, changes in climate between the 1960s and early 1990s. However the last fifteen years has seen an increase in ice melting and a striking correspondence of Greenland with global temperature variations, demonstrating Greenland´s recent response to global warming.

Summer 2003 was exceptionally warm around the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which resulted in the second-highest meltwater running off from the Ice Sheet of the last 50 years. Summer 2005 experienced a record-high melt, which was very recently superseded in summer 2007 – a year almost as warm as 2003.

The team of researchers includes some of the leading Greenland glaciologists and climatologists from the Free University of Brussels, University of Colorado, Danish Meteorological Institute and NASA Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center, University of Maryland Baltimore County, as well as four members of the University of Sheffield.

Dr Edward Hanna said: "Our work shows that global warming is beginning to take its toll on the Greenland Ice Sheet which, as a relict feature of the last Ice Age, has already been living on borrowed time and seems now to be in inexorable decline. The question is can we reduce greenhouse-gas emissions in time to make enough of a difference to curb this decay?"

The findings have been published in the 15 January 2008 issue of Journal of Climate.

2008-06-12T10:59:00.000+09:00

Freshwater Runoff From Greenland Ice Sheet Will More Than Double By End Of Century
sciencedaily.com, June 12, 2008

The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting faster than previously calculated according to a scientific paper by University of Alaska Fairbanks researcher Sebastian H. Mernild published recently in the journal Hydrological Processes. The study is based on the results of state-of-the-art modeling using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as satellite images and observations from on the ground in Greenland.

Mernild and his team found that the total amount of Greenland Ice Sheet freshwater input into the North Atlantic Ocean expected from 2071 to 2100 will be more than double what is currently observed. The current East Greenland Ice Sheet freshwater flux is 257 km3 per year from both runoff and iceberg calving. This freshwater flux is estimated to reach 456 km3 by 2100.

Mernild’s results further show a change in total East Greenland freshwater flux from today’s values of 438 km3 per year to 650 km3 per year by 2100. This indicates an increase in global sea level rise estimates from 1.1 millimeters per year to 1.6 millimeters per year.

“The Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance is changing as a response to the altered climatic state,” said Mernild. “This is faster than expected. This affects freshwater runoff input to the North Atlantic Ocean, and plays an important role in determining the global sea level rise and global ocean thermohaline circulation.”

Mernild is conducting the research as part of the University of Alaska’s International Polar Year efforts. He was appointed a University of Alaska IPY postdoctoral fellow by UA president Mark Hamilton in 2007.

2008-06-11T17:51:00.001+09:00

Geothermal power plants in Japan

The total generating capacity of geothermal plants as of
March 2006 is 534,240kW consisting of 13 commercial
power plants of 520,600kW and 5 private power plants of
13,640kW.

Total power consumed = 22 EJ = 2/3 TWY = 6 trillion kwh

% geothermal = 534 / 6,000,000,000 = 0.00001%

:-((

2008-06-10T17:45:00.003+09:00

Japan Total Energy Consumption & Energy Units
Year Data Source Value Notes
2004 BP World Energy (2005) 21.545 EJ (exajoules)

Terawatt-year (TWyr):
1 TWyr = 8.76 x 10^12 kWh = 31.54 EJ = 29.89 quad

Basic Units

Joule (J).
This is the basic energy unit of the metric system, or in a later more comprehensive formulation, the International System of Units (SI). It is ultimately defined in terms of the meter, kilogram, and second.
Calorie (cal).
Historically the calorie was defined in terms of the heating of water. Thus, in a traditional definition, one calorie is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of 1 gram of water by 1°C, from 14.5 °C to 15.5 °C. (This is sometimes referred to as the 15 °C calorie, and differs slightly from the "calorie" measured for other temperature intervals.) More recently the calorie has been defined in terms of the joule; the equivalence between the calorie and joule is historically known as the mechanical equivalent of heat.

Several definitions of the calorie are now in common use, including (2):
thermochemical calorie 1 cal = 4.184 J (exact)
15 °C calorie 1 cal = 4.1858 J
International Table calorie 1 cal = 4.1868 J (exact)
mean calorie 1 cal = 4.1900 J

The International Table (IT) calorie has been adopted in the publications of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) (3) and of the International Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/IEA) (4). In view of the importance of these publications, it is reasonable to view the IT calorie as being the preferred unit for discussions of energy production and use, but there is no universally adopted practice (see also the discussion of Btu, below).

Sometimes a capitalized version, Calorie, is used to denoted the kilocalorie (kcal). In discussing food, the "calorie," capitalized or not, is always the kilocalorie.

British thermal unit (Btu).
This is the English system analog of the calorie. For specific heat capacities to be the same, whether expressed in Btu/lb-°F or in cal/gm-°C:
1 Btu = 251.9958 cal.

As for the calorie, there is a family of "Btu's" in relatively common use, including:

thermochemical Btu 1 Btu = 1054.35 J
59 °F (15 °C) Btu 1 Btu = 1054.80 J
International Table Btu 1 Btu = 1055.06 J
mean Btu 1 Btu = 1055.87 J

Again, the IT unit is the one used in DOE/EIA publications.
Kilowatt-hour (kWh).
The kilowatt-hour is a standard unit of electricity production and consumption. By definition, noting that 1 kilowatt = 1000 watts:

1 kWh = 3.6 x 10^6 J (exact).

The relationship between the kWh and the Btu depends upon which "Btu" is used. It is common, although not universal, to use the equivalence:

1 kWh = 3412 Btu.

This corresponds to the International Table Btu. [More precisely, 1 kWh = 3412.14 Btu (IT).]

Large-scale units.
In describing national or global energy budgets, it is common practice to use large-scale units based upon the joule, Btu, and kWh:

Exajoule (EJ):
1 EJ = 10^18 J
Quadrillion Btu(quad):
1 quad = 10^15 Btu = 1.055 EJ
Terawatt-year (TWyr):
1 TWyr = 8.76 x 10^12 kWh = 31.54 EJ = 29.89 quad

2008-06-09T10:41:00.000+09:00

Possible Fix For Global Warming? Environmental Engineers Use Algae To Capture Carbon Dioxide
sciencedaily.com, April 1, 2007

Engineers have designed a simple, sustainable and natural carbon sequestration solution using algae. A team at Ohio University created a photo bioreactor that uses photosynthesis to grow algae, passing carbon dioxide over large membranes, placed vertically to save space. The carbon dioxide produced by the algae is harvested by dissolving into the surrounding water. The algae can be harvested and made into biodiesel fuel and feed for animals. A reactor with 1.25 million square meters of algae screens could be up and running by 2010.

Global warming's effects can be seen worldwide, and many experts believe it's only going to get worse. In fact, America is by far the largest contributor to global warming than any other country -- releasing a quarter of the world's carbon dioxide -- the primary cause of global warming. But now engineers have found a natural way to eliminate one of the worst contributors to our environment's decay.

What's coming from power plants, traffic jams and industrial smog is causing our ozone to disappear, ice caps to melt, and temperatures to rise. The latest international report says carbon dioxide responsible for 60 percent of the greenhouse gases.

Now engineers say a simple, sustainable and natural solution may come from algae. "If this sort of technology can be developed, it can be deployed anywhere there's sunlight," David Bayless, a professor of mechanical engineering at Ohio University in Athens, tells DBIS.

Bayless, with a team at Ohio University, created a photo bioreactor that uses photosynthesis to grow algae just like a plant would take carbon dioxide up and, through the energy of the sun, convert that into oxygen.

"That passes the carbon dioxide over these membranes," Ben Stuart, an Ohio University environmental engineer, tells DBIS. "These membranes are fabric just like your shirt. It's a woven material, and as the carbon dioxide pass by them, that carbon dioxide dissolves into the water."

That carbon dioxide is broken down by the algae. Nitrogen and clean oxygen are released back into the atmosphere. But to capture the CO2 created from a power plant, algae would have to fill a building the size of Wal-Mart.

"The size of these things would be enormous, about an acre worth of land space. And so the flu gases would run through this huge building and the algae would be growing on the suspended vertical surfaces." Stuart says.

But what makes it cost effective? The algae can be harvested and made into biodiesel fuel and feed for animals.

Bayless says, "You are talking about definitely home-grown fuel, a win-win thing. You know, you are taking a potentially very negative thing in carbon emissions and turning it into a fuel that we can use domestically." He says a full-scale reactor with 1.25 million square meters of algae screens could be up and running by 2010.

There are already some test facilities working right now -- and just in time! In the past 50 years, the U.S. carbon dioxide emissions have almost doubled. Texas ranks first in the nation for the highest emissions ... And just remember, once carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere, it stays there for about 100 years.

The American Geophysical Union, American Society for Microbiology, and the Optical Society of America contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

BACKGROUND: A researcher at Ohio University's Ohio Coal Research Center has developed a bioreactor that cleans up carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel exhaust with the help of heat-loving algae and hybrid solar lighting. David Bayless believes that the easiest way to eliminate CO2 from coal-burning power plants is to use the natural process of photosynthesis.

HOW IT WORKS: Bayless designed a box packed with blue-green algae spread onto vertical screens. The algae use the CO2 and water from the power plant to grow new algae, giving off oxygen and water vapor in the process. The organisms also absorb components of acid rain, such as nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide. Building a workable prototype had its share of challenges. For instance, there was a problem of limited space -- it just wasn't possible to cover an area of around 100,000 acres with algae. So Bayless instead placed screens of woven fiber with algae vertically. Since algae need sunlight to thrive he brought in hybrid solar lights that collect sunlight with curved mirrors and then channel it through the reactor via optical fibers.

And instead of trying to genetically modify any kind of algae, he found a species that naturally thrives in the hot springs of Yellowstone National Park, and does equally well in the exhaust of a power plant. A remaining challenge is how to dispose of the large quantities of algae produced by the bioreactor; one option is to collect it and use it as a biologically derived fuel.

ALL ABOUT ALGAE: Algae are relatively simple organisms that capture light energy through photosynthesis and use it to convert inorganic substances into organic matter. Photosynthesis is the process of producing sugar from sunlight, carbon dioxide and water, with oxygen as a waste product. Nearly all life depends on this complex biochemical process, which occurs most famously in plants, but also in phytoplankton, algae, and some bacteria, among other organisms. They are usually found in damp places or bodies of water. They vary from single-celled forms to complex forms made of many cells, such as giant kelps, which can grow as much as 65 meters in length. It is estimated that algae produce between 73% to 87% of the net global production of oxygen.

2008-06-08T17:44:00.000+09:00

Energy notes: Energy in natural processes and human consumption, some numbers

http://www.evworld.com/library/energy_numbers.pdf

Energy Conversions
Energy Unit Equivalent
1 Btu 1055 joules or 778 ftlb or 252 cal
1 calorie 4.184 joules
1 food Calorie 1000 calories or 1 kilocalorie
1 hp hr 2.68 x106 joules or 0.746 kwh
1 kwh 3.6 x 106 joules or 3413 Btu
1 eV 1.6x10-19 joules